Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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November 22, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1376374
A


November 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1376371

(For the youth of today, here is the reference.)

I see Americans for Tax Reform is against reappointment of Doug Elmendorf as CBO head. It is a remarkable document, insofar as it is so full of factual errors that the head spins. Montgomery at WaPo provides a ...


November 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1376370

The appropriate level of public sector wages is debated frequently in every country, and the debate has intensified in the wake of the Global Crisis. This column presents evidence that regional wage differentials in Japan are greater in the private sector than in the public sector. In regions where public ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376368
A correspondent sends a suggested edit of a part of my writing tips for PhD students

With markup

Keep it short


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376367
An eagle got an impressive birds-eye-view of London this week, flying over the city's most iconic landmarks using a Sony HDR-AZ1VR Action Cam attached to its back.



Link if video does not play: Action Cam Footage Shows Eagle Flying Over ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376365
Paul Romer serves as the Director of NYU's Marron Institute of Urban Management. I am a Visiting Scholar at this Institute and try to show up there twice a year. The Institute has just posted my new Working Paper titled: Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376366
I was given the chance to speak for 5 minutes yesterday at a public event. Unlike the other speakers, I stuck to my time limit and tried to give a punchy talk about the Future of Los Angeles. The event took at place at Prof. Thom Mayne's studio called ...


November 22, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376356
Update: I've added the MBAand Goldman Sachs forecasts. Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.

Here is a summary of ...


November 22, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1376354
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a line from this report in the New York Times; I add emphasis to that part of the line that is most germane to this blog post:

Studies show that simply raising the price of an alcoholic beverage by 10 percent reduces alcohol consumption by 7 percent, suggesting that ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1376337

Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger:

High marginal tax rates on the top 1%: Optimal tax rates for the rich are a perennial source of controversy. This column argues that high marginal tax rates on the top 1% of earners can make society as a whole better off. Not knowing whether ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1376336

The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2.

Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even ...


November 22, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1376333

From 1967 to 1980, Brazil grew at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent. Few would have predicted, then, that for the next 22 years per capita income would grow at precisely zero.

That is from David Pilling at the FT, who considers China as well.  And here ...


November 22, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1376332
(November 22, 2014 02:15 PM, by Scott Sumner) Consider the following story: A suicide bomber has killed at least 48 students at a high school assembly in northeastern Nigeria, witnesses say. . . . The region has been in the grip of fighting between government forces and Boko... (3 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1376329

Everett Glenn, "Pioneer in professional athlete representation," argues that Ol' Roy had to knowabout the goings-on at UNC-Chapel Hill. (Dang gummit!)

Related: "Bob Smizik: How best to punish UNC".


November 22, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1376328
The first one or two people doing something can hardly be called a trend. Yet, all trends start with a movement of One.

UKIP gained a second seat in British parliament as a result of a special election following a Tory defection to UKIP. The first UKIP seat ...


November 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376313

Remember all those predictions from those with other agendas about runaway inflation (e.g. see Paul Krugman today on The Wisdom of Peter Schiff)?:

The Risks to the Inflation Outlook, by Vasco Cúrdia, FRBSF Economic Letter: The Federal Reserve responded to the recent financial crisis and the Great ...


November 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376312
A


November 22, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1376310
(Don Boudreaux)

Here are two notes on immigration.  The first is from my treasured libertarian friend Frayda Levin; it’s a letter of hers that appears in today’s edition of the New York Times:

To the Editor:

Immigration Has Republican Governors Seething and Facing Practical ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1376272
This will be a short, but busy holiday week. The key reports this week arethe second estimate of Q3 GDP, October New Home sales, October personal income and outlays, and September Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the November Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released this week.


November 22, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1376265

It doesn’t sound quite right to still call it that, does it?  In any case it is on display at the National Museum of African Art.  At least two-thirds of the collection is lame and maybe a third or somewhat less is ...


November 22, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1376264
(November 22, 2014 10:44 AM, by David Henderson) Ok, Krugman didn't say that; he didn't mention my name. But that's Krugman's MO. He has stated explicitly before--I can't find the link quickly--that he doesn't want to mention the names of people he takes issue with because that would... (0 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2014, 10:34 am, 1376216

Bob Davis, who is wrapping up a four-year stint covering the Chinese economy for the Wall Street Journal, offers a dim ...


November 22, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376212
(Don Boudreaux)

In today’s Wall Street Journal, I review the fourth installment – The Mystery of the Invisible Hand - in Marshall Jevons’s economics murder-mystery series.  A slice:

The breakthrough in the case comes when Spearman’s students present the results of their research on the economics of the art market. Among ...


November 22, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376211


November 22, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376210
Dan here…Sometimes I don’t know the questions to ask.  Here is a note on water…. by David Zetland  (from Aguanomics) Does fixing a mistake make it worse? EC writes from Florida: One of the big questions staring me in the face is… as we reach the limits of sustainable use ...


November 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376200
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 21, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity that resulted in several removals ...


November 22, 2014, 8:34 am, 1376199
● Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? By Karen Dawisha Review via The Wall Street Journal Systemic embezzlement, skimming, fraud and personal enrichment through power—these have long been assumed about Vladimir Putin ‘s inner circle, but they have not been comprehensively laid out until now. Karen Dawisha’s book made headlines in ...


November 22, 2014, 8:04 am, 1376197
(November 22, 2014 07:09 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) I've been re-reading some of Herbert Spencer's works, for a LibertyMatters discussion that began with a very insightful article of George H. Smith. In Spencer's The Study of Sociology I've stumbled upon this rather amusing quotation that I'd like to... (0 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2014, 8:04 am, 1376196
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 135 of Michael Polanyi’s deep 1958 volume, Personal Knowledge (original emphases):

Scientific discovery reveals new knowledge, but the new vision which accompanies it is not knowledge.  It is less than knowledge, for it is a guess; but it is more than knowledge, for it is a foreknowledge ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1376194

November 22, 2014, 7:03 am, 1376173
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November 22, 2014, 6:44 am, 1376172
Several conservative economists have argued congressional Republicans should reappoint CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf next year. Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist disagrees.


November 22, 2014, 5:33 am, 1376170

Potentially helpful if you want to show off.


November 22, 2014, 5:33 am, 1376169

Don't sound like a tourist.


November 22, 2014, 5:23 am, 1376168

Photo Credit: Richard.Asia

Recently, I had a client leave me.  I’m not sure why he did — I didn’t ask, because that’s his business.  It *is* his money, after all, not mine.  After deducting the accrued fee, I thanked ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376149

A raft of settlements and criminal charges against big Wall Street firms reinforces a loss of public faith in the banking system that poses a threat to the country’s financial stability, said William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“This loss of trust is so severe that ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376147
Bloomberg News

Household debt in South Korea is rising at its fastest pace in seven years, driven by government efforts to help prop up the economy.

Outstanding household debt grew ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376150
James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Aug. 21. Bloomberg News

Broad expectations the Federal Reserve will start raising short-term interest ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376148

The Federal Reserve has asked its inspector general, Mark Bialek, to scrutinize the manner in which the central bank oversees large financial companies, potentially pulling back the curtain on an area that has seen endless criticism since the financial crisis.

The Fed disclosed Thursday its general counsel Scott Alvarez, who has ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376154
The share of first-time home buyers has represented less than 30% of all buyers in 18 of the last 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors.


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376146
Women participate less in the workforce in many Asian countries than they do in the West. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Economic “miracles” depend to a large degree on ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376155

New figures offer the latest reminder of an apartment boom.

Housing starts fell in October because of a 15.5% drop in the multifamily sector, which is notoriously volatile. But ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376153
European Central Bank board member Yves Mersch. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

DORTMUND, Germany—The negative interest rates that some banks have started to slap on to large deposits shouldn’t ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376152
The consumer price index’s measure for sugar and artificial sweeteners tumbled 2.2% in October and is down 3.8% from a year earlier. Getty Images

Bakers, start your ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376151
In the past, the Fed adjusted rates by moving its benchmark federal funds rate, an overnight rate on interbank lending, by adding or withdrawing reserves out of the banking ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376140
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, listens during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376138
A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376137
In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376145
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles said specific guidance over the medium-term might give households and businesses a false sense of certainty. Reuters

LONDON—Providing ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376136
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

If ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376139

The last month has been a challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376143

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, November 21, 2014:
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dealer Survey Highlights Fed’s Looming Jobs Vs Inflation Conundrum Fed Launches ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376142
President Barack Obama announces executive actions on immigration policy during a televised address from the White House on Thursday. Reuters

The White House on Friday said


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376144
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shown at a ruling-party rally Friday, must win over voters who haven’t benefited from his Abenomics growth policies. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Prime Minister ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376141
Kentucky had the biggest decrease in its unemployment rate, 0.5 percentage point to 6.2%, the lowest level in more than six years. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376135

November 22, 2014, 2:05 am, 1376120

A Georgia O’Keeffe painting just sold for over $44 million, setting a new record for a painting by a woman; the previous record was for a Joan Mitchell painting auctioned for $11.9 million.  A Francis Bacon once auctioned for $142.4 million, and so:

Despite the huge O’Keeffe sale, the cavern between ...


November 22, 2014, 2:05 am, 1376119

November 22, 2014, 1:33 am, 1376118
Thursday and Friday I attended the NBER Asset Pricing conference. As usual it was full of interesting papers and sharp discussion. Program here.

A bloggable insight: Itamar Drechsler, and Qingyi F. Drechsler "The Shorting Premium and Asset Pricing Anomalies." They carefully found the cost ...


November 22, 2014, 1:33 am, 1376117
An important little item from the just released minutes of the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be interesting to people who follow monetary policy and financial reform issues.

Finally, the manager reported on potential arrangements that would allow depository institutions to pledge funds held in ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376100
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, listens during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376102
President Barack Obama announces executive actions on immigration policy during a televised address from the White House on Thursday. Reuters

The White House on Friday said


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376099

The last month has been a challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376101
Kentucky had the biggest decrease in its unemployment rate, 0.5 percentage point to 6.2%, the lowest level in more than six years. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376096
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

If ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376097
In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376098
A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.


November 21, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1376081
A few days ago a friend emailed the Bloomberg article Russia Delivers a New Shock to Crimean Business: Forced Nationalization.

I replied something along the lines of "interesting, but I am going to bounce this of Jacob Dreizin", a US citizen who provides frequent updates to me ...


November 21, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1376080

The chart above shows a most amazing economic phenomenon: Since December 2007 when the Great Recession started, Texas civilian employment has increased by 12.4% and by more than 1.36 million jobs, from just over 11 million jobs in December 2007 to 12.37 million in October of this year (see blue ...


November 21, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1376062

Patented pharmaceuticals diffuse across international borders slowly, and sometimes not at all. This column analyses the effect of patent protection and price regulation on the speed of and extent to which drugs enter new markets. There is a fundamental tradeoff between affordability – taking the form of low patent protection ...


November 21, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1376061
A


November 21, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376033

Friday, 21 November 2014 saw a major change in the expectations for future dividends per share in the stock market for the current quarter (2014-Q4), as measured by the Chicago Board of Exchange's dividend futures contracts, as not much changed for all of the ...


November 21, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376032
The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.

Note: There were 25 selling days in November ...


November 21, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1376031
A


November 21, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1376030

I wonder how many Bankruptcy professors have posed a hypothetical about the exemption of a rare Bible worth lots of ...


November 21, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1376028


November 21, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1376027
In response to Spain Needs to Debate Leaving the Euro; Tooth Fairy Economics I received a nice email from Michael Pettis confirming my translation was correct. He also attached the original article in English.

Michael Writes ...

Thank's Mish.

I am attaching the original, but ...


November 21, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1375966
In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:


November 21, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1375965
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

If ...


November 21, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1375964

Noah Smith:

... Why is it that the sciences look like a feminist nirvana compared with the economics profession, which seems to have a built-in bias that prevents women from advancing? ...

More here.


November 21, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1375963
Several conservative economists have argued congressional Republicans should reappoint CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf next year. Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist disagrees.


November 21, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1375961
A


November 21, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1375962
A


November 21, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1375960
A


November 21, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1375959

This week's EconTalk episode with Vernon Smith helped me understand something that has been bothering me for a long time.

Economics students are taught that human beings are maximizers--we want more rather than less of the things that give us pleasure. But we are constrained by our income. That ...


November 21, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1375957

At companies where pampering employees has always been part of the culture, it is hard to stop if business turns sour. Zynga Inc. shares have fallen more than 80% since 2012 as the game maker struggles to find a follow-up hit to ...


November 21, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1375956
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Baltimore Sun:

Misleading language, faulty economics, and failures to connect the dots saturate Robert Reich’s essay “The growing wealth and clout of the richest .01 percent” (Nov. 21).

He misleads by writing that “the richest one-hundredth of one percent of Americans now hold more than ...


November 21, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1375890

The last month has been challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when markets ...


November 21, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1375889
A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.


November 21, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1375888

Alice Rivlin:

People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act, by Alice M. Rivlin, Brookings: ... The United States ... relied primarily on employer-based health insurance, generously favored by tax laws. ... But there was a huge hole: Millions of people were left ...


November 21, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1375887
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.3% (5.6 billion vehicle miles) for September 2014 as compared with September 2013.

Travel for the month is estimated to be 246.6 billion vehicle miles

Cumulative Travel for 2014 changed by 0.7% (16.7 ...


November 21, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1375886
Several conservative economists have argued congressional Republicans should reappoint CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf next year. Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist disagrees.


November 21, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1375885

Global hyperconnectivity and increased system integration have led to vast benefits in terms of income, education, innovation and technology. Yet globalisation has also created serious concerns about how local events can so easily cascade over national borders to become crises that affect everyone. This Vox Talk discusses the widening gap ...


November 21, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1375884
A


November 21, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1375883
A


November 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1375881
(Don Boudreaux)

Ilya Somin, a brilliant GMU colleague of mine from over in the law school, has a deep take on Obama’s much-talked-about executive order on immigration.  A slice:

Finally, it is worth noting that the the immigration laws covered by the president’s executive order may go against the original ...


November 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1375880
Economics is full of ideas for fiscal & monetary policies. But these policies are Top-down approaches. They work through investment and the financial system. Yes, China lowers its benchmark rate from 6.0% to 5.6%, but China is supporting a failing policy of over-investment. Debt rises… and non-performing loans are increasing. ...


November 21, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1375874

From the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF):

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 29th annual informal price survey of classic items found on the Thanksgiving Day dinner table indicates the average cost of this year’s feast for 10 is $49.41, a 37-cent increase ...


November 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1375814
Kentucky had the biggest decrease in its unemployment rate, 0.5 percentage point to 6.2%, the lowest level in more than six years. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street ...


November 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1375813
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley earlier this month. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve officials are infamous for their love of using metaphors to explain ...


November 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1375812
From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded Further

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District ...


November 21, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1375811
The White House on Friday said its immigration plan would have a plethora of positive economic effects, including higher growth and boosting wages for all Americans, countering criticism from some economists who have argued it could create more competition for open jobs. ...


November 21, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1375810
A


November 21, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1375809
A


November 21, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1375808

CHINA has cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, a powerful signal that the government want to step up support for the slowing economy. As fate should have it, a rate cut was the very thing we had called for in


November 21, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1375805

November 21, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1375804
(November 21, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) My second guest stint with EconLog ends this month. I have about a week left and will take requests: what would you like to read about?... (0 COMMENTS)


November 21, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1375803
(November 21, 2014 11:52 AM, by Bryan Caplan) If life were classic Dungeons & Dragons, many opponents of immigration would be Lawful Neutral. The law is the law; good or bad, everyone has to obey the rules. In his defense of Obama's deferred action policy, Ilya Somin points... (0 COMMENTS)


November 21, 2014, 11:23 am, 1375801
A housing boom is the economic equivalent of a tapeworm infection


November 21, 2014, 11:23 am, 1375800
Another excellent HOD opportunity here, this time at The Hollyfield School in Surbiton.


November 21, 2014, 11:03 am, 1375738

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, November 21, 2014:
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dealer Survey Highlights Fed’s Looming Jobs Vs Inflation Conundrum Fed Launches ...


November 21, 2014, 11:03 am, 1375737
President Barack Obama announces executive actions on immigration policy during a televised address from the White House on Thursday. Reuters

The White House on Friday said


November 21, 2014, 11:03 am, 1375736
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in October. Thirty-four states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from September, 5 states had increases, and 11 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of ...


November 21, 2014, 10:44 am, 1375735
The White House on Friday said its immigration plan would have a plethora of positive economic effects, including higher growth and boosting wages for all Americans, countering criticism from some economists who have argued it could create more competition for open jobs. ...


November 21, 2014, 10:44 am, 1375734
A


November 21, 2014, 10:34 am, 1375733
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate to a +0.11 reading in the October update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (Nov. 24), based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is moderately below the ...


November 21, 2014, 10:34 am, 1375732

The Cato Institute has organized an online forum to debate pro-growth economic policy reforms. Tax Policy Center scholars Bill Gale, Donald Marron, and Eric Toder have each contributed to the discussion.

The United States could reduce its contribution to global climate change and increase domestic prosperity by taxing emissions of carbon ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375658
The share of first-time home buyers has represented less than 30% of all buyers in 18 of the last 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors.


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375659

New figures offer the latest reminder of an apartment boom.

Housing starts fell in October because of a 15.5% drop in the multifamily sector, which is notoriously volatile. But ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375661

ISTANBUL–Turkey’s central bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a third consecutive month, signaling policymakers will stick with a tight stance due to the country’s stubbornly high inflation.
The Monetary Policy Committee kept the benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 8.25%, the central bank said in a statement on ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375660

Renovation nation’s rising again.

Wednesday’s report on housing starts suggests a steady trend for construction. But new houses aren’t the only support to economic growth. Updating a bathroom or adding a deck also ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375663

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting said officials collectively agree that failing to hit their 2% inflation target from either above or below is equally unwelcome.

So what to make of the divergent comments on the topic by several Fed officials in recent weeks? With


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375666
A woman walks by a sign advertising sugary drinks in a Brooklyn neighborhood with a high rate of obesity and diabetes in 2013. Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration tried to ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375665
A woman passes an advertisement outside a fast food outlet last year in Bristol, England, when the government debuted a TV ad to promote healthy eating in England.


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375664
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

An almost 10% year-on-year increase in Japanese exports in October, to their highest level since 2008, has raised hopes that Japan’s cheap-yen policy may finally be ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375662

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, November 20, 2014:
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Staff Whispering Caution in Officials’ Ears With Wary Eye on ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375655
In the past, the Fed adjusted rates by moving its benchmark federal funds rate, an overnight rate on interbank lending, by adding or withdrawing reserves out of the banking ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375650
Women participate less in the workforce in many Asian countries than they do in the West. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Economic “miracles” depend to a large degree on ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375649
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles said specific guidance over the medium-term might give households and businesses a false sense of certainty. Reuters

LONDON—Providing ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375657
European Central Bank board member Yves Mersch. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

DORTMUND, Germany—The negative interest rates that some banks have started to slap on to large deposits shouldn’t ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375651
Bloomberg News

Household debt in South Korea is rising at its fastest pace in seven years, driven by government efforts to help prop up the economy.

Outstanding household debt grew ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375652

The Federal Reserve has asked its inspector general, Mark Bialek, to scrutinize the manner in which the central bank oversees large financial companies, potentially pulling back the curtain on an area that has seen endless criticism since the financial crisis.

The Fed disclosed Thursday its general counsel Scott Alvarez, who has ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375656
The consumer price index’s measure for sugar and artificial sweeteners tumbled 2.2% in October and is down 3.8% from a year earlier. Getty Images

Bakers, start your ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375654
James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Aug. 21. Bloomberg News

 

ST. LOUIS–Broad expectations the Federal Reserve will start raising short-term ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375653

A raft of settlements and criminal charges against big Wall Street firms reinforces a loss of public faith in the banking system that poses a threat to the country’s financial stability, said William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“This loss of trust is so severe that ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375648
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shown at a ruling-party rally Friday, must win over voters who haven’t benefited from his Abenomics growth policies. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Prime Minister ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375647

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, November 21, 2014:
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dealer Survey Highlights Fed’s Looming Jobs Vs Inflation Conundrum Fed Launches ...


November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375646
According to Black Knight's First Look report for October, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in October compared to September, and declined by 12% year-over-year. Mortgage delinquencies are at the lowest level since November 2007.

Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in October ...


November 21, 2014, 8:44 am, 1375645
A


November 21, 2014, 8:44 am, 1375644
A


November 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1375643
In the horse race among the major asset classes, there’s not much competition for first place at the moment. US REITs remain in the lead for the trailing one-year period (250 trading days), and by a wide margin, based on our standard list of ETF proxies for the key slices ...


November 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1375642

Shutdown, Omnibus Spending, Continuing Resolution: So many choices in the wake of an Executive Action. The newly emboldened GOP (or is it?) has several options when responding to last night’s executive order on immigration issued by President Obama. After its Thanksgiving break, Congress will have until ...


November 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1375641

So far this month, the FTSE 100 has risen 2.7%. There's a link between this fact and Emily Thornberry's resignation for that tweet.

The Footsie's gain is consistent with one of the strongest tendencies in finance - for Halloween to be ...


November 21, 2014, 8:04 am, 1375637
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 88 of Russ’s splendid new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life:

Human creativity advances at such a breakneck pace, the device that made your heart sing just a few months ago now looks like an antique.


November 21, 2014, 8:04 am, 1375638
(Don Boudreaux)

Cory Iacono outlines five economic myths that won’t die.  (HT Thomas Boudreaux)

George Will details the audacity, tortured legal reasoning, power-mongering, and interest-group greed that is behind a move to kill school choice in Wisconsin.  Here’s Will’s closing paragraph:

The good news is that Washington is bludgeoning Wisconsin ...


November 21, 2014, 7:33 am, 1375632

Dilbert deconstructs a maxim of management .


November 21, 2014, 7:33 am, 1375631

"20 Things You Don't Understand About NJ (Unless You're From There)".

For more Jersey details, see this informative map.


November 21, 2014, 7:33 am, 1375630
Mary Tao





Prior to 1876, there was fierce competition among engraving firms and private bank note companies for contracts to print U.S. Treasury bank notes. Then, ...


November 21, 2014, 7:03 am, 1375577
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles said specific guidance over the medium-term might give households and businesses a false sense of certainty. Reuters

LONDON—Providing ...


November 21, 2014, 7:03 am, 1375576
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shown at a ruling-party rally Friday, must win over voters who haven’t benefited from his Abenomics growth policies. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Prime Minister ...


November 21, 2014, 6:44 am, 1375575

The ECB estimated that Eurozone banks would face a capital shortfall of €25 billion in a severe crisis. Earlier work by the authors estimated the shortfall to be 30 times higher. This column argues that this striking divergence can be explained by the ECB’s reliance on static risk-weights. 


November 21, 2014, 6:34 am, 1375574
Paul Krugman seems to be having a supply-side-economics moment… sort of. Raising taxes, the NY Times columnist and Nobel laureate has been arguing lately, threatens Japan’s fragile economic recovery. “Shinzo Abe is doing the right thing, seeking to delay the next rise in consumption taxes,” Krugman wrote on his blog ...


November 21, 2014, 6:04 am, 1375573
(Don Boudreaux)

After I’d earlier quoted from Deirdre McCloskey’s incisive review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, several of you asked me how to get a copy of Deirdre’s review.  It’s now available.


November 21, 2014, 5:33 am, 1375571

More than everything you want to know about a good song.


November 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1375510
Women participate less in the workforce in many Asian countries than they do in the West. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Economic “miracles” depend to a large degree on ...


November 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1375509

November 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1375508

It's the decent thing to do:

Suffer Little Children, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: The Tenement Museum, on the Lower East Side, is one of my favorite places in New York City. It’s a Civil War-vintage building that housed successive waves of immigrants, and a number of apartments ...


November 21, 2014, 4:44 am, 1375507

Would the economic benefits of devolving full income tax powers to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly outweigh the costs? Not according to an overwhelming majority of respondents to the monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), summarised in this column. A smaller majority of CFM experts do not ...


November 21, 2014, 4:34 am, 1375506
● US Leading Economic Index Increased Again In October | Conference Board ● US October consumer prices flat; core CPI up 0.2% | USA Today ● Eurozone Nov Flash Consumer Confidence Falls Unexpectedly | RTT ● UKIP, Populist Anti-E.U. Party, Wins 2nd Seat in Britain’s Parliament | NY Times ● ...


November 21, 2014, 4:05 am, 1375505

1. They have been reported to exist in Australia, India, Mauritania, Burma, and the Mediterranean, but the best known are in Brazil.

2. In parts of southern Brazil, human fisherman have been cooperating with dolphins for many generations (of each species).

3. If fishermen clap just the right way, dolphins will herd ...


November 21, 2014, 4:05 am, 1375504

You will find it here (pdf), forthcoming in the Erasmus Journal of Philosophy and Economics.

For the pointer I thank Ray Lopez, who in turn drew upon Patrick R. Sullivan, a commentator at The Money Illusion.


November 21, 2014, 3:03 am, 1375467
Bloomberg News

Household debt in South Korea is rising at its fastest pace in seven years, driven by government efforts to help prop up the economy.

Outstanding household debt grew ...


November 21, 2014, 2:44 am, 1375466
A


November 21, 2014, 2:34 am, 1375465
Teaser:


November 21, 2014, 2:05 am, 1375464

1. Daniel Schreiber, Susan Sontag: A Biography.  I never tire reading about her, or reading her, for that matter.

2. Richard Bernstein, China 1945: Mao’s Revolution and America’s Fateful Choice.  A very good book on how the Americans had a decent relationship with the Chinese Communists in ...


November 21, 2014, 1:33 am, 1375463
Shaky Accounting EU Style

Inquiring minds note that Italy Accuses Brussels of ‘Shaky’ Accounting. That's certainly not a shocking accusation.

"Shaky" is exactly what one should expect when you get a bunch of nannycrats who believe Nirvana is on the horizon if wealth and taxes ...


November 21, 2014, 12:34 am, 1375417
Teaser:

Ezra ...