Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639830
(May 25, 2016 03:42 PM, by Scott Sumner) You may like your outgoing and family oriented culture, or your introspective and individualistic culture. But that fact, by itself, doesn't make your culture better than another. (Put aside the question of whether it is better, a much more difficult... (0 COMMENTS)

May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639829
(Don Boudreaux)

In the current (July 2016) issue of Reason, Deirdre McCloskey reviews

May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639827

My first book, Homeland Security and Federalism: Protecting America from Outside the Beltway (with a Foreword by the Honorable Edwin Meese III), is now available in paperback and the timing couldn’t be better. When the book first came out, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) did ...

May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639828

Have you ever attended a sporting event where billboards flashed advertisements? Quite likely. Have you ever been to a conference with sponsored events, shuttles and meals? Happens all the time. In these cases, and many more, advertisers in effect help subsidize your ticket purchase. The practice is so common as ...

May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639826

Policy is only half of the equation.

Yesterday, I released a report on the role of rights and responsibilities in education laws across the United States. In it, I argue that if states want school choice truly to work, they must turn a critical eye to how laws treat parents, ...

May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639825

One of the biggest challenges facing America’s economy is low workforce participation. While the latest jobs report showed the private sector adding over 150,000 jobs for seven consecutive months, the labor force participation rate keeps declining. The civilian labor force participation rate has dipped to 62.8%, the lowest level in ...

May 25, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1639789

[wsj-responsive-image P="//
523im_P_20160523114130.jpg" J="//
523im_J_20160523114130.jpg" M="//
523im_M_20160523114130.jpg" caption="Protesters take part in a demonstration against the reform package in front of the Greek Parliament in Athens this week. Greece struck a deal Wednesday to unlock desperately-needed bailout funds for the debt-ridden nation." credit="Angelos Tzortzinis/Agence France-Presse" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

The International Monetary Fund acted tough on Greek debt ...

May 25, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1639782

A nice example of incentives in action from Jason Furman speaking at the World Bank (based on a good GAO report):

Prior to the [2009] law’s enactment, the tax rates on roll-your-own tobacco and ...

May 25, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1639781

Jinan is the second largest city in Shandong province, and a good place to see “normal China”; it is much more in the “concrete and motorbikes” mode than is Qingdao.

Qufu is the birthplace of Confucius, and a longstanding home of the Chinese nobility and Chinese scholars, with ...

May 25, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1639778

Scott Summner posted this beautiful exchange between Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr. on immigration. Direct link(youtube).

Scott titles the post "when the GOP still had some decency," which I think he should more accurately state ...

May 25, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1639777

May 25, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1639776
On the front page of the WSJ today, there is an article about the Congress passing bipartisan legislation intended to reduce consumer exposure to dangerous chemicals. The tone of the article is optimistic that this new regulation is better than the old TSCA regulation. The interesting part of the ...

May 25, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1639775

The computer package displayed above (computer, monitor, keyboard and printer) sold at Best Buy in 1994 for $1,998, as featured in its weekly flyer and ...

May 25, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639744
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in April.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets.

Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.

TheAll Cash ...

May 25, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1639743

May 25, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1639742

May 25, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1639741

May 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639740

May 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639739
Clinton’s aides say they have settled on the big story they want to tell about Trump: He is a business fraud who has cheated working people for his own gain, and his ideas, temperament and moves to marginalize people by race, gender and creed make him simply unacceptable as commander ...

May 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639736

A lot has been made of the tech world’s growing involvement in politics — from accusations that social media sites such as Facebook are politically biased, to questions over certain Silicon Valley leaders’ endorsements, to the sector’s support of issues such as more high-skill immigration.

Republicans and other on the right bemoan that Silicon ...

May 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639738

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Washington, DC (May 24) American Enterprise Institute (AEI) president Arthur Brooks announced today that Michael R. Strain has been named Director of Economic Policy Studies at AEI. He replaces Kevin A. Hassett, who will become Director of Research for Domestic Policy in addition to holding the State ...

May 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639737

The recent congressional debate about what is to be done about Puerto Rico’s economic and financial crisis seems to lack an air of reality, since it very much avoids trying to quantify the enormity of the island’s economic problems. That avoidance is unfortunate since it downplays the urgency of the ...

May 25, 2016, 11:33 am, 1639734

From the back story of Tuesday's NY Times Morning Brief:

Strains of Edward Elgar’s “Pomp and Circumstance” March No. 1 are echoing across the land this commencement season.

For hundreds of thousands of undergraduates, higher education was made possible, in part, by the U.S. government’s two Morrill Acts. The legislation helped ...

May 25, 2016, 11:33 am, 1639732

May 25, 2016, 11:33 am, 1639733

Exxon doesn't seem to be incorporating all available information:

At the company’s planned annual meeting on Wednesday in Dallas, shareholders will vote on a resolution to prod Exxon Mobil to disclose the risks of climate change to its business.

Such resolutions have been floated ...

May 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639699

Today is May 25, the day when you might see people walking around with towels. It's also the one-month anniversary of Lunch Links, which we launched to gauge interest in us providing a daily list of interesting tax-related links. A month in, an average of 1,989 people click on ...

May 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639698

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rade0_P_20160524194701.jpg" J="//
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rade0_M_20160524194701.jpg" caption="Faster data on trade and inventories should make early GDP readings more reliable." credit="SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

The U.S. government is expanding its effort to minimize surprises when estimating the nation’s economic growth.

About a month after each quarter ends, the Commerce Department puts out an initial estimate for ...

May 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639697
From the FHFA: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.3 Percent in First Quarter; 19 Consecutive Quarterly Increases

U.S. house prices rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2016 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). This is the nineteenth consecutive quarterly price increase ...

May 25, 2016, 10:44 am, 1639696

The brief is not up on the SG's webpage yet, but they are recommending granting the petition and reversing the Third Circuit.  Hat tip to Professor Lipson or Attorneys Goldblatt et al.?  I think this now places granting odds at "moderately decent."

(Those less in the weeds: CVSG ...

May 25, 2016, 10:35 am, 1639695

Survey data published by Markit Economics this week anticipates a weak US economic profile for May. Today’s flash estimate of the Services PMI for this month dipped modestly to 51.2, or just slightly above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The news follows Monday’s preliminary ...

May 25, 2016, 10:04 am, 1639688
(Don Boudreaux)

My initial thought was to include Thomas Sowell’s latest column in one of my “Some Links” posts.  But this ...

May 25, 2016, 10:04 am, 1639687

Last week, the independent US International Trade Commission issued its long-awaited economic analysis of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. Congress has mandated such reports for all US trade agreements. As in the past, the USITC’s assumptions and conclusions are based on solid, standard models for evaluating the economic ...

May 25, 2016, 9:34 am, 1639681

Video of my talk at the Minneapolis Fed's "Ending Too Big to Fail" symposium. A link to the video (youtube) in case you don't see the above embedded version. The event webpage, with links to the other talks and the agenda. ...

May 25, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639650

The Obama administration’s push to secure debt relief for Puerto Rico to boost the island’s sagging economy is clashing with its effort to push for higher U.S. wage floors.

Legislation moving through Congress to tackle Puerto Rico’s debt crisis would exempt the island from new overtime-pay rules unveiled by the Obama administration. ...

May 25, 2016, 8:44 am, 1639649

May 25, 2016, 8:35 am, 1639648

The US stock market rebounded sharply yesterday, dispensing the biggest daily gain in two months. But the latest surge doesn’t change much for the trailing 10-year return, which remains well below its median for the rolling decade-long changes posted over the last 50 years. That may or may not be ...

May 25, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639644
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 26 of my colleague Peter Leeson’s and GMU Econ alum Zachary Gochenour’s excellent article “The Economic ...

May 25, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639641

Let's do a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Assume a 5% currency/Nominal GDP ratio. Assume the government/central bank wants to use helicopter money to permanently raise the level of NGDP by 5% above what it would otherwise be. So the stock of currency will be permanently higher by 0.25% of NGDP. And assume ...

May 25, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639640

"What caused Haiti’s cholera epidemic? The CDC museum knows but won’t say."

Guess. Go ahead, guess.

May 25, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639638

I kinda thought this was what title searches were for. So does the Charlotte homebuyer.

May 25, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639639

Revealed: more lies from guess who. (Story is by Gretchen Morgenson in the New York Times.)

When Washington took over the beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the collapse of the housing market and the financial crisis of 2008, it was ...

May 25, 2016, 7:33 am, 1639637
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Micah Smith

Credit conditions tightened considerably in the second half of 2015 and U.S. growth slowed. We estimate the extent to which tighter credit conditions last year were responsible for the slowdown using the FRBNY DSGE model. We find ...

May 25, 2016, 7:03 am, 1639612
From the MBA: Purchase Applications Increase and Refis Hold Steady in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 20, 2016.
The Refinance Index increased ...

May 25, 2016, 6:35 am, 1639611

● US New-Home Sales Jump to Highest Level in Over 8 Years | NY Times
● Richmond Fed: Manufacturing activity slowed in May | Richmond Fed
● Americans’ confidence in the US economy remains steady in mid-May | Gallup
● ECB’s Villeroy: Brexit Risks High for UK ...

May 25, 2016, 5:34 am, 1639607

"There’s guy pretty, and there’s girl pretty. Jennifer Aniston is the latter."

May 25, 2016, 5:23 am, 1639606

Laissez faire economics is defined as a situation with minimal government intervention. Under laissez-faire, governments and regulators ‘leave alone’ private firms to allow them to make decisions about production and output.

In particular, laissez-faire involves zero / minimal government intervention on issues such as regulation, taxes and tariffs.

Origin of Laissez faire

Laissez-faire ...

May 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639588

Not long ago, we came across a data source that provided over 150 years worth of nominal price data for wheat crops grown in the U.S., which we recently visualized.

But more than that, it also provided some very remarkable data on ...

May 25, 2016, 4:05 am, 1639587

Plug those numbers into the formula, and the prediction is that the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in 2016 will be 44.99%.

That is from Timothy Taylor, here is an earlier piece by Jeff Sommer.

The post Sentences to ponder appeared first on

May 25, 2016, 4:04 am, 1639586
(May 25, 2016 04:00 AM, by Emily Skarbek) Attention undergraduates and undergraduate educators - one week remains to submit papers for the 5th annual Carl Menger Essay Contest! The purpose of the contest is to recognize and encourage undergraduate scholarship in the Austrian tradition and the broadly catallactic... (0 COMMENTS)

May 25, 2016, 3:03 am, 1639559

May 25, 2016, 3:03 am, 1639558

In case you missed this in yesterday's links (the full interview is much longer):

Interview with Matthew Gentzkow, by Douglas Clement. Editor, The Region: Before Matthew Gentzkow entered the field, the economics of media was largely uncharted territory. Today, media economics is flourishing thanks largely to him and his ...

May 25, 2016, 3:03 am, 1639557

Tim Duy:

Should The Fed Tolerate 5% Unemployment?. by Tim Duy: In recent posts I highlighted the stagnant unemployment rate. I believe the Fed is on thin ice by raising rates when unemployment is moving sideways, especially when there exists evidence of substantial underemployment (see also this ...

May 25, 2016, 2:44 am, 1639556

May 25, 2016, 2:05 am, 1639552

Donald Trump may get the nuclear suitcase, a cranky “park bench” socialist took Hillary Clinton to the wire, many countries are becoming less free, and the neo-Nazi party came very close to assuming power in Austria.  I could list more such events.

Haven’t you, like I, wondered what is up?  ...

May 25, 2016, 12:44 am, 1639542

May 25, 2016, 12:34 am, 1639541
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssHealthInterventionismMonopoly and CompetitionThe Early History of Regulated Health Care

May 25, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639540
Aristotle did. As Philip Kreager reminded me: Historians of economics have for some time treated his [Aristotle's] writings as formative, even though relevant passages in the Politics and Ethics amount to only a few pages. Wait. There’s more: In the Politics, however, population is a recurring topic, extensively discussed and ...

May 24, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1639534
President Barack Obama will make a return to Elkhart, Ind., a small city in northern Indiana where he made his first trip as president in 2009.

May 24, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1639533

Another draft extract from my book-in-progress, Economics in Two Lessons. It’s the last part of the section on “predistribution”, dealing with Intellectual Property. Next up, “redistribution” through taxation and public expenditure.

As always, encouragement is welcome, constructive criticism even more so.

The system of property rights in market societies is ...

May 24, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1639532
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1639525
• At 7:00 AM ET, he Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus ...

May 24, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1639521

Chairman Corker, Ranking Member Cardin, members of the committee, thank you for this opportunity to testify before the committee on “U.S.-India Relations: Balancing Progress and Managing Expectations.” I am Sadanand Dhume, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan public policy research organization based in Washington, DC. ...

May 24, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1639520
The BBC has published a dramatic piece reporting that some of Exxon's shareholders are making a major stand that this fossil fuel intensive huge company must change its game and diversify away from oil. The NY Times has published a similar front page article. Such shareholder ...

May 24, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1639502

What’s the proper way to tax personal saving and investment? It’s a great question, and under current tax law, we have lots of different answers! Specifically, we have four of them, which I’ll get to in a moment. But first let’s talk a little about what saving and investment ...

May 24, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1639501

May 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1639500
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssHow the TSA Kills Hundreds of People Every Year

May 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1639499

China’s stated policy goal is to rebalance away from both investment and exports.

That is not all that easy to do.

After the crisis, China rebalanced away from exports (exports fell significantly as a share of China’s GDP, and China’s manufacturing trade surplus also fell relative to China’s GDP) mostly by juicing ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639497
No wait don’t go bear with me. The irritating messages have headers such as 3399949424 @EricTrump: Really p 3399940424 @realDonaldTrump and 3399940424 @realDonaldTrump So how do Eric and Donald Trump (who appear to be so poor that they are sharing a cell phone) know that an Italian resident TIM customer ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639496
It is sometimes argued that Conservatives and Republicans are anti science. There is often a quest for Ballance (or a so’s your mother reply from conservatives). I recall reading about liberal anti vaxxers (sorry I don’t recall actual URLs). Chris Mooney noted that there is no detectable association of vaccine ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639495

School choice not only allows children to attend the schools best suited to their specific needs, but it can also help empower parents to be thoughtful advocates for their child’s education. And yet, there is very little dialogue on how school choice laws actually treat parents.

In his new report, AEI ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639494

Hillary Clinton recently suggested that she would put her husband “in charge of revitalizing the economy, because, you know, he knows how to do it.” When the May CBS News/New York Times poll asked registered voters about their views of the former president, 45 percent had a favorable opinion and ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639493

Good afternoon, Chairman Castro, Vice-Chairwoman Timmons-Goodson, and distinguished members of the Commission. It is an honor to be here to share with you what the research says about the role and effects of money on outcomes.

My name is Gerard Robinson, and I am a resident fellow at the American Enterprise ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639492

In AEI’s June issue of Political Report, Senior Fellow Karlyn Bowman, along with researchers Heather Sims and Eleanor O’Neill, distill what voters in Democratic and Republican contests told exit pollsters during the 2016 primary and caucus season — providing the most comprehensive examination available of 2016 entrance and exit polls. ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639491

As the country wends its way toward summer conventions, most Republican registered voters see their party as divided. In the May CBS News/New York Times poll of registered voters, only 14 percent of Republicans said their party was united, while 84 percent described it as divided. Democrats were divided: 50 percent said ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1639457

Chris Dillow:

Prospect theory & populism: Does prospect theory help explain support for Brexit in the UK and for Donald Trump in the US?

The bit of the theory I have in mind is the prediction that people are risk-seeking when they are losing, because they gamble to get ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1639456
As part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.

From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2016 was $321,100; the average sales price was $379,800."

May 24, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1639455

Bubba Smith, the former N.F.L. star who went on to have a successful career as an actor, is the latest former pro football player to be diagnosed as having a degenerative brain disease linked to repeated concussions:

Bubba Smith, the All-Pro defensive end in the N.F.L. who went on ...

May 24, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1639454
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssBrexit: The Movie Makes the Economic Case Against The EU

May 24, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639453

For decades, Republican presidential candidates have enjoyed a distinct advantage when it comes to foreign and national security policy.  In 2012, President Obama briefly closed the foreign policy gap with Mitt Romney before his election by promising that the “tide of war” had receded and that he would focus ...

May 24, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639452

The phrase “it’s not rocket science” is meant to convey the fact that whatever one is talking about, or dealing with, is really not all that complicated in comparison. As old videos of test rockets blowing up on launch or spinning out of control shortly after launch seemed to attest ...

May 24, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1639418
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssMoney and BanksMoney and BankingWhy Most of Chicago's Banks Failed during the Great Depression: The Puzzle Resolved

May 24, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1639410

May 24, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1639409

For women, most of it, at least according to Wong and Penner:

This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) to (1) replicate research that documents a positive association between physical attractiveness and income; (2) examine whether the returns to attractiveness ...

May 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1639408
(May 24, 2016 03:50 PM, by David Henderson) One of my favorite writers and thinkers on the Cato blog, Cato at Liberty, is Jim Harper. He posted yesterday on voting, titling his piece "Don't Not Vote." He makes some good points but goes too far. The issue for... (0 COMMENTS)

May 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1639407

Editor’s Note: This article is part of a ChinaFile Conversation on the impact of growing debt on China’s economy. The full conversation can be found here.

In the first quarter of 2016, Chinese debt rose to 237 percent of GDP—a level comparable to that of the U.S. or the Eurozone and ...

May 24, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1639404
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639373

[wsj-responsive-image P="//
omen0_P_20160524110338.jpg" J="//
omen0_J_20160524110338.jpg" M="//
omen0_M_20160524110338.jpg" caption="" credit="TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

Last week, we wrote about how women in elite occupations often see a bigger pay discrepancy from male coworkers than women working in other professions. We then asked readers to share their experiences with the gender wage gap. More than ...

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639372
The Q1 report was released today:Household Debt and Credit Report.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Steps Up, Delinquencies Drop

Household indebtedness continued to advance during the first three months of 2016 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household ...

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639371
The new home sales report for April was very strong at 619,000on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and combined salesfor January, February and March were revised up by 44 thousand SAAR.

This was the highest sales rate since January 2008.

Sales were up 23.8% year-over-year (YoY) ...

May 24, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1639370

May 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639368

The proposed Puerto Rican Restructuring Bill is to be welcomed as a first step towards resolving the island’s chronic debt problem and towards improving its economic and financial management. However, it is to be regretted that the bill seems to lack any vision as to how to extricate the island ...

May 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639367

A longer version of this blog post can be found on

Reformist politician Minoo Khaleghi had already won a seat in Iran’s February 26 parliamentary elections when the Guardian Council, a twelve-member body constitutionally charged with managing the country’s elections, disqualified her after alleged photographs of Khaleghi without ...

May 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639366

The new overtime rule announced by President Obama last week extends overtime pay protections to more than 4 million workers by raising the salary threshold to $47,476. The intent of the rule is to boost wages for low- and middle-income workers by requiring that employers compensate employees for every additional ...

May 24, 2016, 11:33 am, 1639364

…. is from Thomas Sowell’s latest column “Commencement Season“:

Two themes seem to dominate Commencement speeches. One is shameless self-advertising by people in government, or in related organizations supported by the taxpayers or donors, saying how nobler it is to be in “public service” than working in business or other ...

May 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639333

Today is May 24, the date in 1937 when the Supreme Court upheld Social Security (and Social Security and unemployment insurance payroll taxes) in Helvering v. Davis and Steward Machine Co. v. Davis. In Helvering, the Court held 7 to 2 that Congress could spend to promote the general welfare independently ...

May 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639332
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 619 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up by a total of 44 thousand (SAAR).

"Sales of new single-family houses in April 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted ...

May 24, 2016, 10:44 am, 1639331

May 24, 2016, 10:44 am, 1639330

May 24, 2016, 10:35 am, 1639329

Does prospect theory help explain support for Brexit in the UK and for Donald Trump in the US?

The bit of the theory I have in mind is the prediction that people are risk-seeking when they are losing, because they gamble to get even. This explains ...

May 24, 2016, 10:34 am, 1639328
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssTaxes and SpendingWorld HistoryFiscal TheoryThe War on Cash is Ancient

May 24, 2016, 10:04 am, 1639321

Parents are a child’s first educator. At the same time, after a child reaches a certain age, most parents rely on the state for their child’s education. The tension of rights and responsibilities between parents and the state has a long tradition in Western history. If government is responsible ...

May 24, 2016, 10:04 am, 1639320

Last year, the Attorney General of New York subpoenaed Exxon to hand over records related to climate change research and advocacy. The aim is to silence opponents of expensive and sometimes counterproductive actions against greenhouse gas emissions. For climate militants, there is no legitimate debate on climate change science ...

May 24, 2016, 9:34 am, 1639315

It is of course useful from time to time to take a look at the longer-term picture when it comes to health spending especially given that there is a slowdown in health expenditure growth. Figure 1 plots per capita total health expenditure in US PPP dollars from 1960 to 2014 ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639284

Many Americans are struggling under huge monthly student-debt bills. But they are a sizeable minority, not the norm.

That’s the conclusion of research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The typical borrower between ages 20 and 30 pays $203 a month toward student debt. Three-quarters of borrowers pay no ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639283
From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at April Mortgage Data: Lowest Number of Foreclosure Starts in 10 Years; Prepay Activity Falls Despite Low Rates

• At 58,700, April 2016 saw the lowest number of foreclosure starts since April 2006

• National delinquency rate ...

May 24, 2016, 8:44 am, 1639282

May 24, 2016, 8:35 am, 1639281

The Federal Reserve continued to press ahead yesterday with its public relations effort of talking up the possibility of a rate hike, perhaps as early as next month. The latest addition to the hawkish-chattering club is the Philly Fed’s Pat Harker, who advised on Monday that “I can easily ...

May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639277
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 427 of H.L. Mencken’s indispensable 1949 collection, A Mencken Chrestomathy; specifically, it’s from Mencken’s ...

May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639276

May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639275
Yves Smith at NC: The SEC showed its true colors yet again at a panel at Stanford Law School at the end of March, although not as dramatically as last year. In last spring’s SEC panel at Stanford, the then head of examinations, Andrew Bowden, made such fawning remarks about ...

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639273

Last week was fifty years since Dylan's Manchester show in which he famously replied to a heckler and Changed Music Forever: "I don't believe you. You're a liar! . . . Play it fuckin' loud!"

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639272

"Tiny" as in the population is about 1.3 million.

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639270

I blame the editors. Somebody is allowingpieces to mention things contraryto the Approved Narrative.

Example #1:

She [Tara Houska, a tribal lawyer and a member of the Couchiching First Nation in Canada]also said that those who clung to family lore — of, say, being part Cherokee on their ...

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639271

You might want to check it out:

The point of this blog is to watch, and analyze the death of the progressive model using the lens of classical liberalism. . . .

Maddog is trained as a pipe fitter, welder, a paper maker, wilderness medical technician, equipment ...

May 24, 2016, 6:35 am, 1639243

● Markit PMI shows US manufacturing stagnant in May | MarketWatch
● Philly Fed’s Harker: June Hike Appropriate With Stronger Economy | MNI
● Progress toward full employment has stalled | FedWatch
● When Elections Aren’t About the Economy | NY Times
● Billions in US ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 am, 1639242

We still do not know who or what is responsible for the crash of EgyptAir Flight 804, but we know this much for certain: The terrorist danger is growing, and it won’t be contained to the Mediterranean.

Responding to criticism of President Obama’s handling of terrorism, White House press secretary Josh ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 am, 1639241

Key Points

By 2015, at least 45 states and the District of Columbia had enacted 102 choice laws, including 43 charter school laws, 25 voucher laws, 20 tax-credit laws, 9 tax-deduction laws, and 5 Education Savings Account (ESA) laws. Regrettably, existing choice laws demonstrate that parental rights and responsibilities in education ...

May 24, 2016, 5:34 am, 1639238

Better pay attention, Cali.

May 24, 2016, 5:23 am, 1639237

Hysteresis is a concept which states that history affects the value of a current issue. In economics, hysteresis states that historical rates of unemployment are likely to influence the current and future rates of unemployment.

If there is a recession and rise in cyclical unemployment, this temporary unemployment can affect ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639204

On Monday, 16 May 2016, the U.S. Treasury updated its accounting of the national origins of the major foreign holders of debt issued by the U.S. government through the end of March 2016, the halfway point of the federal government's fiscal year. With ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639203

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639202

Tim Duy:

Curious, by Tim Duy: I find the Fed's current obsession with raising interest rates curious to say the least. The basic argument for rate hikes is that the economy, and in particular the labor market, sustained its momentum in the last two quarters better than market participants ...

May 24, 2016, 4:04 am, 1639201

The subtitle of that new paper is “Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts,” here is the abstract:

The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a ...

May 24, 2016, 2:05 am, 1639195

So say Hummel, Pfaff, and Rost, in a recent paper:

In view of the numerous accounting and corporate scandals associated with various forms of moral misconduct and the recent financial crisis, economics and business programs are often accused of actively contributing to the amoral decision making of their graduates. ...

May 24, 2016, 12:44 am, 1639191

May 24, 2016, 12:34 am, 1639190
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssClinton Adviser, Nobel Prize Winning Economist Endorsed Venezuelan Socialism

May 24, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639186
(May 23, 2016 10:28 PM, by Emily Skarbek) My sense is that most of the coverage of Brexit in the US comes down in favour of remaining in the EU. That is the case put forward in Dalibor Rohac's new book. And for onlookers, I think it is... (0 COMMENTS)