Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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October 30, 2014, 11:33 am, 1360767


October 30, 2014, 11:33 am, 1360766

Thank goodness that "low cost electricity" is not the penultimate goal in some parts of the world:

These are rough times for carbon taxes, aimed at mitigating climate change. Australia recently repealed ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360704
The U.S. economy’s expansion was aided by trade, which boosted growth as imports fell. Getty Images

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% rate in ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360703

Calculated Risk:

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360702
Earlier the DOL reported:

In the week ending October 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 283,000 to 284,000. The 4-week moving average was 281,000, ...


October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360701
Josh Bivens: For the past six months GDP has been growing at a rate of 4.1%. If sustained, the recovery would clearly be shifting into a higher gear. But, sadly, there's not a lot of evidence it will be sustained.


October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360700
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October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360699
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October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360698
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October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360697
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October 30, 2014, 10:34 am, 1360696
The US economy grew faster than expected in this year’s third quarter, according to this morning’s “advance” GDP estimate for the July-through-September period. Economic activity expanded 3.5% in Q3, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports — comfortably above the consensus forecast’s 3.0% estimate, according to Econoday.com’s survey. Meanwhile, today’s weekly ...


October 30, 2014, 10:05 am, 1360692

According to a Wall Street Journal article posted online this morning, the Federal Reserve chair(wo)man Janet Yellen expressed that the “economics profession … could benefit from a more diverse range of views.” Delivering introductory remarks at a conference, Yellen stated:

Did the economics profession recruit and promote the individuals best ...


October 30, 2014, 9:33 am, 1360690

Or: "Should Finance People be allowed out unaccompanied by a macroeconomist?".

If the central bank is doing its job right, monetary policy ought to appear to be irrelevant.

The Economist says (HT Mark Thoma) "Interest rates do not seem to affect investment as economists assume", and this means that monetary ...


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360629

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 30, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen Surprises With Willingness to Displease Doves Fed Ends Bond Buys, Sticks to ...


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360627

Janet Yellen, the first woman to lead the Federal Reserve in its 100-year history, said Thursday the economics profession, which is dominated by white males, could benefit from a more diverse range of views.

“Did the economics profession recruit and promote the individuals best able to bring the energy, the ...


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360628
Here are key numbers from the Commerce Department’s report on Thursday.


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360626
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014, ...


October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360622
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October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360624
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October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360625
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October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360623
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October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360621
It’s nearly Halloween, but the frightening rise in US stock market volatility earlier this month is looking less creepy at the moment. In particular, the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 has tumbled substantially over the past week, settling at a level yesterday (Oct. 29) that prevailed before the ...


October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360620

If a British aerospace company gets its way, you could one day have a chance to fly in a passenger plane where the windows are replaced by wraparound view screens that show you what’s outside the plane all ...


October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360619

While the world has been spending the last several months paying attention to everything from Ukraine to the rise of ISIS to Ebola, there’s been something interesting going on in world oil markets. Starting roughly in June, the per-barrel price of ...


October 30, 2014, 8:05 am, 1360618

It is by Eva Vivalt and is called “How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?” (pdf).  The abstract is here:

Impact evaluations aim to predict the future, but they are rooted in particular contexts and results may not generalize across settings. I founded an organization to systematically collect ...


October 30, 2014, 8:05 am, 1360617

Here is Jody Lanard and Peter M. Sandman on the risks of an Ebola pandemic in the developing world:

The two of us are far less worried about sparks landing in Chicago or London than in Mumbai or Karachi.

Do read the whole thing, via Andrea Castillo.


October 30, 2014, 8:04 am, 1360616
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 38-39 of the manuscript of Deirdre McCloskey‘s extensive and insightful review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century; (quoted here with Deirdre’s kind permission) (original emphasis; footnote excluded):

The usual way, especially on the left, of talking about poverty relies on the percentage distribution ...


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360613

The "microbiome" continues to be the new hotness in things dietary.

See also "An apple a day could keep obesity away".


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360612

"How I Rewired My Brain to Become Fluent in Math:Sorry, education reformers, it’s still memorization and repetition we need.

"The best way to teach kids math is not in a classroom".

Lists of independent facts without a network of connections are hard to ...


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360610

Dang clever.

Kempf is the unlikely founder ofAdvancing Eco Agriculture, a consulting firm established in 2006 to promote science-intensive organic agriculture. The entrepreneur’s story is almost identical to Zook’s. A series of crop failures on his own farm drove the 8th grade-educated Kempf to school himself ...


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360611

Absolutely. MayaMacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

What was needed then and is still needed now is a plan–not for short-term austerity but to address our medium- and long-term debt situation. Policies need to be phased in gradually and designed to support the ...


October 30, 2014, 7:23 am, 1360609
This prediction is based on estimates of the real cost of living, known as purchasing power parity or PPPs which according to this FT article "are recognised as the best way to compare the size of economies rather than using volatile exchange rates". PPP theory takes into account ...


October 30, 2014, 7:23 am, 1360608
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an example of an oligopoly colluding overtly to fix the price of a barrel of oil - currently there are 12 members and according to OPEC they control 81% of crude oil reserves. One of OPEC's main aims is to “ensure stable ...


October 30, 2014, 6:44 am, 1360545
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October 30, 2014, 6:34 am, 1360544
● NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe | Wall Street Journal Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown. ...


October 30, 2014, 6:05 am, 1360542

The Federal Reserve has finally ended its quantitative easing programs. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed has pursued what seemed like an endless policy of asset purchases. As recently as September 2008 the monetary base in the US was just a hair over $800 bn. Today this ...


October 30, 2014, 5:23 am, 1360539

Q2: Why are there millions of people unemployed even when the economy is booming?

During periods of strong economic growth, we can often experience high rates of unemployment. Firstly, there may be structural unemployment. This occurs when the unemployed are unsuited ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360477

Now that we've had to go to some effort to work out how the median household income in the U.S. has evolved over the last several months from payroll tax collection data, we're going to put those estimates to work today to get a ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360476

October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360474

Tim Duy:

FOMC Recap, by Tim Duy: In broad terms, the FOMC meeting concluded as I had expected. To the extent there were any surprises, they were on the hawkish side. Or, I would say, hawkish mostly if you believed the events of ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360475

In case you just can't get enough of Larry Summers talking about secular stagnation:

Reflections on the new 'Secular Stagnation hypothesis', by Larry Summers, Vox EU: The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in ...


October 30, 2014, 4:44 am, 1360473
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October 30, 2014, 3:33 am, 1360469

Three new important energy milestones were reached recently, based on energy data released this week by the Energy Information Administration:

1. US oil production increased last week to 8.97 million barrels per day (bpd), which is the highest weekly level amount of domestic crude oil production in the 32-year history of ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 am, 1360414
The Bank of Japan is trying to achieve stable price growth of 2%. Reuters

The Bank of Japan is set to release its latest three-year ...


October 30, 2014, 2:44 am, 1360413
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October 30, 2014, 2:05 am, 1360412

That is the new Foreign Affairs piece by Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman, and they argue that matters have gone strikingly well and are relatively normal.  Here is one excerpt:

Newspapers overflowed with accounts of soaring mortality amid the stress of transition. On average, however, life expectancy rose from ...


October 30, 2014, 12:04 am, 1360360
(October 30, 2014 12:24 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Every large, unselective group includes some villains. Say whatever you like about the average moral caliber of Christians, atheists, Democrats, Republicans, plumbers, comic book fans, or Albanians. The fact remains that each of these groups contains some awful people. While... (1 COMMENTS)


October 29, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1360299

Capital flows to emerging markets have been very volatile since the Global Crisis. This has kindled debates on whether – and how – to better manage cross-border flows. In this column, the authors examine the role of capital account restrictions in taming destabilising capital flows. The results indicate that capital ...


October 29, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1360297

Sound corporate governance is essential for a well-functioning banking system and the integrity of financial markets. This column discusses the corporate governance of Italian banks, its regulatory framework, and the specific challenges arising from the role played by foundations and large cooperatives. Although Italian banks have recently made progress in ...


October 29, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1360298

The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with ...


October 29, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1360296

The quasi-gold standard promoted by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames in their new book has more in common with the Bretton Woods system than with the classical gold standard.


October 29, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1360295

Austerity is nothing more than allowing the private sector more control over what it produces. Those who argue against austerity are claiming that government will more wisely spend, invest, and save than private persons and firms.


October 29, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1360294
This article was originally published in the Columbia FDI Perspectives series of the Columbia Center for Sustainable Investment, #131, September 29. I have left it largely unchanged, except for adding a link and a comment, and correcting a grammatical error. As I discussed in an earlier Perspective,[1] the use ...


October 29, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1360232

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to end its bond-buying program helped moved  the needle of formal opposition at the central bank from the camp of officials opposed to its ultra-easy credit policies to the group wanting them to continue for a long time to come.


October 29, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1360231
From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 2.7 percent on October 28

From Chico Harlan at the WaPo: Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will give a better read on the U.S. economy

Many ...


October 29, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1360230

Nobel laureate and emeritus professor at MIT Robert Solow sat down with EconTalk host Russ Roberts this week to discuss growth theory and the challenges of macroeconomics.

Now let's hear from you. Use the prompts below for comments here at EconTalk, or use them to start your ...


October 29, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1360227
You’d think that, by now, people would understand that, once it is on the web, there is no point locking the barn door after the cat has gotten out of the bag. This is today’s hot meme The Cleveland Plain Dealer filmed (and posted) a joint interview with current (and ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360163

Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane dreams of sitting in a Star Trek-style chair, staring at a bank of electronic screens.

But he isn’t imagining exploring strange new worlds or seeking new life and new civilizations. This captain wants to warp through the alien galaxy that is the global economy. ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360162
Texas had 14 metro areas with jobless rates of less than 5%, led by Midland, Texas at 2.6%. Getty Images

Nearly one-third of the 372 metropolitan areas ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360160

Here is the full text of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, released Wednesday:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360161

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360158

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced the end of its long-running bond-buying program. The central bank also stuck to an assurance that short-term interest rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time.” Economists largely expected the end of the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing, as it ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360159

The end of QE3 may signal a watershed moment in Federal Reserve communications: The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement is finally getting shorter.  Today’s 707-word statement was the shortest in more than a year, and 188 words shorter than the statement in September.


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360156
Tight government budgets had been a drag on U.S. economic growth for several years. Getty Images

For the first time in a while, Federal Reserve isn’t worried about the ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360157
The nation on Thursday gets its first look at how the U.S. economy fared during the third quarter, a period in which fears of a global growth slowdown steadily mounted, even against a backdrop of firm domestic demand.


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360155

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to end its bond-buying program helped moved  the needle of formal opposition at the central bank from the camp of officials opposed to its ultra-easy credit policies to the group wanting them to continue for a long time to come.


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360154
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Yesterday the Census Bureau released the “Residential Vacancies and Homeownership” Report (commonly referred to as the Housing Vacancy Survey, or HVS) for the third quarter of 2014. The HVS is based on a relatively small sample of housing units, still uses an outdated ...


October 29, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1360153
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October 29, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1360152
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October 29, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1360149

Mises Daily Wednesday by Frank Shostak:

Economics Nobel Prize winner Jean Tirole still clings to the old neoclassical model “perfect competition” and monopoly, in which there is no place for entrepreneurship, and which fails to grasp that consumers benefit more from a ...


October 29, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1360143
Goodbye Retail Associates, Hello Robots

The future of shopping has arrived, and it's not human.

Not only do robots cost less than humans, they don't complain, they speak multiple languages, and most importantly, by scanning aisles they know where every item is in the store and can take ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360082

Next Tuesday, Nevada voters will decide whether or not to give the go-ahead to the margin tax—an economically damaging tax that falls in the gross receipts tax family. Gross receipts taxes (GRTs) only exist in a handful of states across the country (and even that’s too many).

Gross receipts ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360080
The nation on Thursday gets its first look at how the U.S. economy fared during the third quarter, a period in which fears of a global growth slowdown steadily mounted, even against a backdrop of firm domestic demand.


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360081

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced the end of its long-running bond-buying program. The central bank also stuck to an assurance that short-term interest rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time.” Economists largely expected the end of the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing, as it ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360079
Tight government budgets had been a drag on U.S. economic growth for several years. Getty Images

For the first time in a while, Federal Reserve isn’t worried about the ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360078

And California and Minnesota surge ahead of the US. I know this sounds like a broken record, but the numbers are the numbers. And reader Patrick R. Sullivan suggests I move to Kansas (based on a Tax Foundation analysis). Here’s at least one reason why I don’t plan to. ...


October 29, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1360077
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October 29, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1360074

To develop an intuition for our main result, note that the equilibrium private saving behavior must be resistant to rare mutants.

That is from the new Robson and Szentes AER paper, “Biology and Social Discounting,” which argues that the nature of sexual reproduction causes private discount rates to rise ...


October 29, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1360072
Sanctions or not, NASA uses Russian-made engines to propel rockets.

Yesterday, just seconds after takeoff, a NASA Antares rocket with a Russian-made engine exploded on takeoff. The mission was to carry supplies to the orbiting space station.

Today, the Guardian reports that Russian rocket manufacturer insists ...


October 29, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1360071
Inquiring minds may wish to slog through today's FOMC Press Release on Monetary Policy but it's really not worth the time it takes to read it.

Here are a few details, generally expected
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for ...


October 29, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1360070

Photo Credit: DonkeyHotey

September 2014October 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360006

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360008

Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane dreams of sitting in a Star Trek-style chair, staring at a bank of electronic screens.

But he isn’t imagining exploring strange new worlds or seeking new life and new civilizations. This captain wants to warp through the alien galaxy that is the global economy. ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360007
Texas had 14 metro areas with jobless rates of less than 5%, led by Midland, Texas at 2.6%. Getty Images

Nearly one-third of the 372 metropolitan areas ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360005

Here is the full text of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, released Wednesday:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360004

The end of QE3 may signal a watershed moment in Federal Reserve communications: The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement is finally getting shorter.  Today’s 707-word statement was the shortest in more than a year, and 188 words shorter than the statement in September.


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360003

The digital divide:

Digital divide exacerbates US inequality, by David Crow, FT: The majority of families in some of the US’s poorest cities do not have a broadband connection, according to a Financial Times analysis of official data that shows how the “digital divide” is exacerbating inequality in the ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360002

Brian Lucey:

Is (teaching) Economics doing more harm thangood?: Every September thousands of students enter into universities and institutes of higher education. A large number of these take some economics courses. ... Economists alsotypically teach courses such as statistics, or introductory mathematics for social scientists. And yet, we have ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360000

"In a panel discussion moderated by Dean Rich Lyons, Laura Tyson, professor of business administration and economics at the Haas School of Business, and Emmanuel Saez, economics professor and head of the Center for Equitable Growth at UC Berkeley, focus on income inequality, ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360001

Antonio Fatás:

Riksbank and ECB: reverse asymmetry: The Swedish central bank just lowered interest rates to zero because of deflation risks. This action comes after ignoring repeated warnings from Lars Svensson who had joined the bank in 2007 and later resigned because of disagreements with monetary policy decisions. What ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1359999
QE3 ends. Considerable time until first rate hike. Labor market upgraded from "significant underutilization" to "underutilization".

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid ...


October 29, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1359996
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October 29, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1359998
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October 29, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1359997
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October 29, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1359993

October 29, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1359992

Further evidence of a dramatic slowdown in patent litigation activity in the United States is provided today in data published by Unified Patents, the entity whose business is based on helping SMEs fight frivolous patent suits. According to the research, which covers ...


October 29, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1359991
(Don Boudreaux)

Bill Hill (who has no Facebook account), after reading this post, asks a sensible question.  I’ll paraphrase his question.  (Mr. Hill: If I paraphrase mistakenly, do let me know ASAP.)

You [Boudreaux] say that minimum-wage legislation blocks the creation or discovery of economic opportunities that might well, had ...


October 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1359987

http://comicskingdom.com/mark-trail/2014-10-28

I can't wait to see:

How they draw the high priced economic consultant hired by Riverway Chemical to criticize the contingent valuation method as junk science (something like this guy?) Mark Trail punch the consultant in the face!

Note: When was the ...


October 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1359986
As more and more syllabuses start to incorporate behavioural economics into their specifications (as they should!)... so are governments around the world.Most recently, I came across this - a paper produced by the Irish Civil Service on how behavioural economics can assist in policy making and incorporating it into their ...


October 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1359985
Some quirky videos here on economic questions fromWeTheEconomy...Paul G. Allen’s Vulcan Productions and Morgan Spurlock’s Cinelan have partnered to produce WE THE ECONOMY 20 Short Films You Can’t Afford to Miss. Each film is helmed by an acclaimed filmmaker, each with their own creative vision. The series aims to drive ...


October 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1359984

Readers Question: Why does the cost of living keep rising?

This is due to inflation – the persistent increase in the average price level. In modern economies, inflation is a common feature. In fact most Central Banks target ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359923

Tens of thousands of Hungarians rallied to protest a proposal to create a tax on internet usage in Hungary. In response to the first protest on Sunday, the Hungarian government limited its proposal.

The original proposal would create a tax on internet usage of 150 forints per gigabyte ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359917

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley conferred frequently with U.S. central bank chief Janet Yellen over the spring as the policymakers mulled a new strategy to eventually wind down the Fed’s ultra-easy policy stance.


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359915

The Federal Reserve likes to operate by consensus, but there are often one or two dissenting votes when its policy committee meets. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser both dissented at the Fed’s September meeting, and they could do it again on ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359916

U.S. home prices are up just 5.1% in the year ended in August, according to today’s S&P Case-Shiller report. That’s down from 5.6% in July.

San Francisco’s prices ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359918
The Federal Reserve in Washington. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Federal Reserve’s bond-buying may be coming to an end this week, but it is certain to live on ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359922

October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359914

The International Monetary Fund has been warning for years that emerging markets must put their economic houses in order to avoid getting burned by “hot money” cash flows when global markets freak out.  (Like they might again in the unlikely event that the U.S. Federal Reserve changes its rate ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359921
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The good news: People made a noble $5 million in extra “gifts” last year to help Uncle Sam pay down the debt.

The bad news: That covered ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359920
Getty Images

For the cheapest gas, fill up in the Palmetto State.

Average gas prices in the U.S. fell to $3.03 a gallon on Tuesday and stood below the ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359919
Here are four key things to watch in the Fed’s statement to be released Wednesday at 2 p.m., after its two-day policy meeting concludes.


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359910
Zimbabwe, led by president Robert Mugabe, was listed as one of the world’s worst places to run a business in a new World Bank report. It ranked 171 out ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359906
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The C-Note was no longer on the A-list in 2014.

The U.S. government’s printing of the $100 bill fell sharply in the fiscal year that ended Sept. ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359905

The Federal Reserve’s forward guidance has been a lot more effective at keeping long-term rates down and stimulating the economy than its three bond-buying programs, says Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine, who until recently was a researcher at the San Francisco Fed.

The central bank’s expected ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359913

The rate of U.S. home price increases is decelerating, and that home-price slowdown is a mixed bag.

It looks unlikely for now, but if prices turn negative again year-over-year, that would exact a toll on would-be buyers’ psyche. A sharp run-up in prices, meanwhile, has dented affordability and is ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359907

October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359904

 

Rachael Heffner, profiled in a Wall Street Journal article about student debt in June, rented a room in her parents’ basement with her boyfriend.


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359908
South Korea’s exports grow 2.9%  on year in the first nine months of 2014. Getty Images

South Korea’s exports to China have underperformed Taiwan’s this year, leaving ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359911

Consumers are in a happy place right now, ignoring financial-market swings and Ebola fears. But one big challenge for households–weak income growth–remains.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its confidence index increased to ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359912
Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Jon Cunliffe Bloomberg News

 

A senior Bank of England official said Tuesday the need to raise interest rates in the U.K. has ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359909

Consumers around the world are feeling slightly more confident about their economic situation–although pockets of distress remain, according to a global survey of individuals released Wednesday.

The global consumer confidence index edged up ...


October 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1359903
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in September to 1.96% from 1.98% in August. Freddie's rate is down from 2.58% in September 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.


October 29, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1359901
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October 29, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1359902
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October 29, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1359899
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October 29, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1359900
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October 29, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1359898
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October 29, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1359890
(Don Boudreaux)

I challenge anyone to justify, or even to excuse, such an abuse of power.  (HT a dear and wise and passionate friend.)

Words normally do not escape me, but I can find none that adequately convey the anger and sense of injustice that course through me when I ...


October 29, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1359889
Click on the Post Boehner is talking about a man who put the minimum amount of time in at his National Guard air base of duty, failed to qualify as a pilot in 1972, and was subsequently grounded. Guess flying missions in Vietnam was out of the question? But according ...


October 29, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1359888


October 29, 2014, 11:33 am, 1359887

"People are just not very good at math and they find it particularly hard to make estimates about very large numbers or very small numbers," said Bobby Duffy, global director of the Ipsos Social Research Institute.

via news.yahoo.com


October 29, 2014, 11:33 am, 1359886

From the inbox (emphasis added):

My name is [redacted] and I am the SEO expert of a leading SEO service provider company. As per my analysis, your website is not performing well in the Google organic search. Also your traffic is poor from last couple of months due to some of ...


October 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1359821

In the past three decades, the importance of “pass-through” businesses has grown substantially. The combined net income of sole proprietors, LLCs, Partnerships, and S corporations has increased fivefold and now accounts for more than 50 percent of all business income. C corporations now earn less than half of all ...


October 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1359820

The Federal Reserve’s forward guidance has been a lot more effective at keeping long-term rates down and stimulating the economy than its three bond-buying programs, says Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine, who until recently was a researcher at the San Francisco Fed.

The central bank’s expected ...


October 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1359819

 

Rachael Heffner, profiled in a Wall Street Journal article about student debt in June, rented a room in her parents’ basement with her boyfriend.


October 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1359818
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shillera month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. Note: Hopefully Zillow will start estimating the National Index.

From Zillow: Find Out Next ...


October 29, 2014, 10:44 am, 1359817
If Republicans win control of the Senate, they will have a rare opportunity to design a unified congressional economic plan, borrowing ideas that have been tested in states led by GOP governors. Here's a look at how the programs resonated with voters in several states.


October 29, 2014, 10:44 am, 1359815
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October 29, 2014, 10:44 am, 1359816
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October 29, 2014, 10:34 am, 1359812

The Sunderland Echo has a useful phrase - a "culture of mistakes". In fact, such a culture extends far beyond the Mackems. In a world of complexity, bounded rationality and limited knowledge, mistakes are inevitable and ubiquitous. The


October 29, 2014, 9:33 am, 1359807
If you are in the DC area, you can hear me speak on November 13. Click here for more information.


October 29, 2014, 9:33 am, 1359806

It’s easy to be misled by absolute figures, but when assessed in proper terms, by relating exports to GDP, neither the United States nor China is a strong trading nation.

The United States leads the world in GDP, followed by China. China, in absolute terms, is number one in exports, with ...


October 29, 2014, 9:33 am, 1359805

…. is from David Brooks, writing in the New York Times last week in his column “The Working Nation“:

Today, too many people are focused on the top 1 percent. But, as economist David Autor has shown, if you took all the wealth gains the top 1 percent made between 1979 ...