Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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- Recent Entries


May 4, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1633086
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Washington Post:

Matt O’Brien writes that “Venezuela, by all rights, should be rich.  As we ...


May 4, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1633085

Polls did not exist when the estate tax was enacted 100 years ago in 1916, but wealth (inherited and self-made) was an early subject when the polling business got its start in the mid-1930s. As Laura Saunders of the Wall Street Journal pointed out last weekend in her lively history ...


May 4, 2016, 5:34 pm, 1633083
The Hoover Institution Press just published "Central Bank Governance and Oversight Reform," the collected volume of papers, comments, and discussion from last May's conference here by the same name. You ...


May 4, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1633052
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May 4, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1633048

When row upon row of neighborhood homes continued to display the nation’s flag in the weeks after 9/11, it seemed confirmation enough that the proud public spiritedness of the World War II years had reemerged from the attics of a younger generation’s hearts. Also a WWII veteran, the late constitutional ...


May 4, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1633012
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April (with a range of estimates between 175,000 to 245,000, and for the unemployment rate to decline to ...


May 4, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1633011
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May 4, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1633009

Who needs a flying car?

Kurkova donned the first “cognitive” dress to be worn at the Met Gala. Embedded with LED lights, the dress changed colors in real time based on Twitter users’ reactions to the night.

Here is more, via ...


May 4, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1633008
(May 4, 2016 03:18 PM, by David Henderson) Co-blogger Scott Sumner has written an excellent post this morning pointing out that the Keynesian model per se is not a big government model. He is right, for the reasons he gives. When the late Ben Rogge came to give... (1 ...


May 4, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1633007
Erik Loomis of LG&M tweeted out that Guy Clark has entered a nursing home and is “stable.” It’s almost surprising he lasted this long. Suzanna, his long-time wife (a songwriter in her own right, who co-wrote “Come From the Heart,” which her husband covered on Old Friends, and “Easy From ...


May 4, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1633002

Matt Kahn:

The key question is how much utility does this household lose when Mother Nature nudges it to make a new locational choice? The NY Times implicitly says that these people are passive victims who will greatly suffer. I doubt this, the U.S has many nice places to move to ...


May 4, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632971

With a vote looming on an Illinois bill (HB 689) that would impose a graduated income tax with a top rate of 11.25 percent on pass-through businesses (previous coverage here and here), the Illinois Department of Revenue has dropped a fiscal note with grim news ...


May 4, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632970

Jared Bernstein:

The productivity slump and what to do about it: ...today, I’d like to explore ... the significant downshift in productivity growth. ... I’m afraid the slowdown is real... I think there are 5 reasons: slower growth of capital per worker, slower TFP, capital misallocation, the absence of ...


May 4, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1632969
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May 4, 2016, 12:05 pm, 1632965

May 4, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632964
(May 4, 2016 10:05 AM, by Scott Sumner) [This is a sort of follow-up to my most recent Econlog post.] Before getting into this post, let me remind you of previous pointless debates, such as whether "Islam" is "really" a this or that sort of religion. I hope... (5 ...


May 4, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632963

At an Indiana rally the other day, Bernie Sanders said he wanted to “tell the billionaire class” something. A member of the audience offered, “To [expletive] off,” to which Sanders replied, “Well, that’s one way to phrase it.”


May 4, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632962

Last week, AEI hosted more than 80 leaders for our spring 2016 AEI Leadership Network Summit.  The Leadership Network is an exclusive program that reaches leaders from across the country representing nonprofit and community organizations, small business, and state and local government.  To date, more than 200 distinguished leaders are ...


May 4, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632961

In the last four presidential elections, the Republican nominee has never won less than 90 percent of the Republican vote. Republicans won the popular vote only one of those times, in 2004, and when they did they carried 93 percent of Republican voters. Donald Trump has defied the odds before, but ...


May 4, 2016, 11:33 am, 1632959

On the "The Top 20 U.S. Colleges For Outdoor Adventurers":

Do you dream of shredding powder, live for the challenge of climbing a tough pitch, or love taking risks navigating class III rapids? Or do you prefer basking in the sunshine, learning the natural history of your surroundings, hiking through pine ...


May 4, 2016, 11:23 am, 1632958

The labor force participation rate had been generally declining since around 2007. However, that trend has partially reversed in recent months. As noted in the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, this rise was interpreted as further strengthening of the labor market. ...


May 4, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632926

Today is May 4, which is Star Wars Day (“May the Fourth be with you.”) Lest we forget, taxes are a crucial plot element in the Star Wars saga. Here are some interesting links I came across:

California Income Taxes $1 Billion Under Projection: The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) pegged ...


May 4, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632925

In the past three decades, the number of jobs for knowledge workers has never been rising as quickly as it is right now.

As recently as the mid-1980s, you could categorize American workers into roughly three equal-sized groups of about 30 million people each. About 31 million people had nonroutine cognitive jobs, ...


May 4, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632924

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Ben Bernanke and Democratic Helicopter Money: “The fact that no responsible government would ever literally drop money from the sky should not prevent us from exploring the logic of Friedman’s thought experiment, which was designed to show—in admittedly extreme terms—why governments should never have to give in to ...


May 4, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632923
The April ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 55.7%, up from 54.5% in March. The employment index increased in April to 53.0%, up from 50.3% in March.Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management:April 2016 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic ...


May 4, 2016, 10:44 am, 1632922
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May 4, 2016, 10:44 am, 1632921
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May 4, 2016, 10:35 am, 1632920
Employment growth at US companies slowed in April to the weakest gain in three years, according to this morning’s update from ADP. The private sector added only 156,000 positions to payrolls last month in seasonally adjusted terms—well below expectations for a gain of nearly 200,000. Today’s data raises new questions ...


May 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1632918
(Don Boudreaux)

I’m pleased and very proud to post this announcement here and to be part of this new ...


May 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1632919
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 277 of David Henderson’s 2002 book, The Joy of Freedom:

The FDA may have ...


May 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1632917
by Linda Beale IRS Scrutiny of 501(c)(3)s As most everybody is aware by now, the IRS has been under considerable strain for a number of years from budget and staff reductions that have left it underfunded, understaffed, and under pressure.  This is part of the right’s effort to “shrink the ...


May 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1632916
by Barkley Rosser (originally from Econospeak) The Legacy of Joan Robinson Over a week ago Joan Robinson came up in connection with the ongoing controversy over Gerald Friedman’s analysis of Bernie Sanders’s economic plan.  When criticized for apparent problems with it he declared that those who understand what he is ...


May 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1632915

Ted Cruz built his political reputation as a brash outsider taking on the Republican establishment in Washington – which is why he survived as long as he did in the 2016 primaries, while all the candidates favored by the establishment fell one by one.

As they dropped out, Cruz tried to ...


May 4, 2016, 9:34 am, 1632910

I give my kids $100 and tell them to spend it not save it.

1. How can I tell whether my kids have really spent $100 more than they otherwise would have spent? Maybe they would have spent $100 anyway.

2. How can my kids tell whether I have really given them ...


May 4, 2016, 9:33 am, 1632909

Shannon Wulf Tregar:

Last week, environmental regulators from 14 states sent a letter to the Environmental Protection Agency asking for guidance on how to how to implement the carbon emissions reduction goals outlined in the Clean Power Plan. The letter indicates states’ willingness to enact voluntary measures, despite the Supreme ...


May 4, 2016, 9:33 am, 1632908

The U.S. government has started programs to pay for the relocation of those located in particularly vulnerable areas:

In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced grants totaling $1 billion in 13 states to help communities adapt to climate change, by building stronger levees, dams and drainage systems.


May 4, 2016, 9:03 am, 1632876

My colleagues have a new paper on interest rate pegs in New Keynesian models:

Interest Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models by George W. Evans and Bruce McGough Abstract: John Cochrane asks: "Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation?" We find that pegging the interest rate at a ...


May 4, 2016, 9:03 am, 1632875
From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 156,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
...


May 4, 2016, 9:03 am, 1632874
The Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.4 billion in March, down $6.5 billion from $47.0 billion in February, revised. March exports were $176.6 billion, ...


May 4, 2016, 8:44 am, 1632873
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May 4, 2016, 8:35 am, 1632872
Vanguard founder John Bogle gave a powerful speech last month at the Q Group’s Spring Seminar that lays out the case (again) for favoring basic indexing and shunning complexity in matters of portfolio design and management. As Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler points out, Bogle wields the weapon of “basic math” with ...


May 4, 2016, 8:34 am, 1632871

Nick Cohen makes an important point here – that the oppressed are not necessarily more virtuous than others. I want to expand upon this. There are several mechanisms that might cause this.

One, which is most relevant to Nick’s argument, is that oppression often produces stress ...


May 4, 2016, 8:04 am, 1632870
(Don Boudreaux)

This just-published video is of the great Deirdre McCloskey speaking last year in Romania.


May 4, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632868

Good question. Mr. Lutz also opines on Alfa Romeo's future in the U.S.


May 4, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632867

What the title means, of course, is that the CDC is trying to get Americans reclassified as ill. Why not? Probably would mean a bigger budget for several Federal agencies.


May 4, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632866

May 4, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632865

Entertaining review of Richard Posner'srecentbook,Divergent Paths: The Academy and the Judiciary, by Paul Howitz (Gordon Rosen Professor of Law at the University of Alabama School of Law).

The individual criticisms of the article may be sound, but his conclusion—that the author “misperceives what judges need in the way ...


May 4, 2016, 7:33 am, 1632864
Marco Cipriani and Adam Copeland




In this post, the third in a series on GCF Repo®, we describe dealers’ ...


May 4, 2016, 7:03 am, 1632847
From the MBA: Refis Down, Purchases Flat in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 29, 2016.
...
The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent ...


May 4, 2016, 6:35 am, 1632846
● US auto sales recover in April | MarketWatch ● Redbook: US retail sales growth edges lower in last week of Apr | TradingEco ● European Commission trims growth forecast | IBT ● Revised PMI Composite for Eurozone signals slow growth in Apr | Markit ● Global mfg remains in ...


May 4, 2016, 6:04 am, 1632845

Download the PDF

Key Points

Military readiness has deteriorated in the last year. The services are not able to meet their day-to-day requirements and still lack ...


May 4, 2016, 5:03 am, 1632826

Just a visual reminder for anyone who has any confusion about what the fundamental driver of stock prices really is. The animation below shows the S&P 500's average monthly earnings per share, dividends per share and price per share in logarithmic scale since January 1950 ...


May 4, 2016, 5:03 am, 1632825

May 4, 2016, 4:05 am, 1632824

This new NBER paper by John Komlos is of real interest, and it documents the “average is over” idea of the dwindling of middle class fortunes:

We estimate growth rates of real incomes in the U.S. by quintiles using the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) post-tax, post-transfer data as ...


May 4, 2016, 2:04 am, 1632804

May 4, 2016, 1:03 am, 1632771

Tonight Senator Ted Cruz ended his presidential campaign after a long Republican presidential primary. While Cruz will remain in the Senate, working on policy at the federal level, it is unlikely that his tax plan will become legislation any time soon. However, the plan, first unveiled in late October, ...


May 4, 2016, 12:04 am, 1632765

Is the Federal Reserve independent? It “attracts conspiracists better than most governmental agencies,” acknowledges Wharton School legal historian Peter Conti-Brown. In “The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve,” he analyzes the Fed’s original charter compared to its present-day activities.

Join Mr. Conti-Brown, Carnegie Mellon Professor Allan Meltzer, R Street Institute ...


May 3, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1632730
What does this mean? Nothing I guess. But amusing.


May 3, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1632729
Sanders was at the very top of his game tonight in Louisville.  A genuinely beautiful speech, delivered in perfectly modulated tone, with a wonderful, mostly young group standing on the stage very close behind him and to his sides, and a crowd that several times broke into chants of “Bernie! ...


May 3, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1632697
Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 193,000 payroll jobs added in ...


May 3, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1632693
(Don Boudreaux)

Although Douglas Rushkoff had by page 16 of Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus already given me enough reason to ...


May 3, 2016, 7:34 pm, 1632692

I did a short interview with the WSJ's Mary Kissel about my growth oped. If you can't see the embed above, try this direct linkor this one.


May 3, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1632691
Environmentalists and concerned citizens should read this piece. It covers a lot of ground but for a blog post, it offers a lot of ideas at a price of $0. Towards the end of the piece, the authors finally get to their main point. They believe that Agent Based ...


May 3, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1632659
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May 3, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1632656

Yemeni forces supported by the Emirati military reclaimed the city of al Mukalla from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) April 23-24. AQAP had controlled this city since April 2015, using it as a hub to support operations throughout the country. The military operation – largely planned and ...


May 3, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1632657

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “student debt is crippling our economy!” It’s a favorite line of argument from free college supporters, who tend to think it’s bad that anybody has to borrow to pay for college, especially because they think it keeps young people from various rites ...


May 3, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1632655

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is hoping results from Iran’s second round of parliamentary elections on April 29 produce a better political landscape as he looks toward his re-election campaign a year from now.

He needs the good news. The more conservative outgoing parliament pointedly made his life more difficult in this ...


May 3, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1632621
Based on an estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a17.42 million SAAR in April.

That is up about 4% from April 2015, and up about 6% from the 16.46 million annual sales rate last month.


May 3, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1632620
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May 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1632616

European countries that refuse to share the burden of high immigration will face a financial charge of about €250,000 per refugee, according to Brussels’ plans to overhaul the bloc’s asylum rules.

The punitive financial pay-off clause is one of the most contentious ...


May 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1632615
(May 3, 2016 04:10 PM, by David Henderson) I was going through my pile of unread Wall Street Journals over the weekend and found this news story: Scott Patterson, "End of an Era: England Closes Its Last Deep Coal Mine," December 11, 2015. Here's one key paragraph: The... (2 ...


May 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1632614

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has long been content to play the role of the submissive puppet Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who reprises the role and leadership style of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. But, like for so many past enablers and apologists for the ...


May 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1632612

For the past several years, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been painting a bleak portrait of the state of the armed services. Testifying to the senate Armed Services Committee in January 2015, recently retired Army chief Gen. Ray Odierno admitted that Army readiness “has been degraded to ...


May 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1632613

If we don’t stop extending our troops all around the world in nation-building missions, then we’re going to have a serious problem coming down the road. And I’m going to prevent that. I’m going to rebuild our military power.

Those words could very easily have come from Donald Trump’s foreign policy ...


May 3, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1632604

This paper, a response to Desvousges, Mathews and Train's "adequate responsive to scope" paper, has just been published online in the methodological and ideological options section of Ecological Economics:

Plausible responsiveness to scope is a question of economic significance, in addition to statistical significance, of the scope test in ...


May 3, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1632603

Rob Stavinsis annoyed but I'm not sure at who. Is it the steady state ecological economists ("We should encourage our public bodies, to adopt an economic policy that rejects the endless pursuit of aggregate growth") or the folks who that that a technological solution exists such that GDP increases ...


May 3, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1632572
Today is the opening of a remarkable and nearly carbon-free conference organized by Ken Hiltner and colleagues at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The title is Climate Change: Views from the Humanities.

From today until May 31, all of the talks will be available at the conference ...


May 3, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1632569

May 3, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1632568

Three years ago, Trinity Lutheran Church of Columbia sued the director of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources after the department denied its application for a grant to resurface its daycare playground. That may sound like a minor dispute. But, Trinity’s lawsuit, which is now before the Supreme Court, is ...


May 3, 2016, 1:35 pm, 1632565
I did an oped on growth in the Wall Street Journal, titled "Ending America’s Slow-Growth Tailspin." I'll post the full thing here in 30 days.

Blog readers will recognize a distilled version of my longer essay on growth (blog post here,html here, pdf here), and ...


May 3, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632534

The gig economy is paying off for workers who are already among America’s highest earners.

More people who were among the top 20% of income earners made money from digital platforms such as Uber and Airbnb than lower-income workers, according to new data from the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

An estimated 1.63 million people ...


May 3, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632533

Kevin O'Rourke:

The Davos lie: ... If there's one thing that people agree about in Davos, it's that globalisation is a Good Thing. ...

As is well known, many Western societies have become more unequal over the past two decades... During the 1980s and 1990s, the consensus was that this growing ...


May 3, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632532

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France, Head of the International Macro Division) and Clément Marsilli (Banque de France, Economist in the International Macro Division). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent ...


May 3, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632531
Note: This is an update to a post I wrote some time ago with more recent data and projections.

Here is something different, but it is important when looking at demographics ...

The following data is from the CDC United States Life Tables, 2010 by Elizabeth Arias.


May 3, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1632530
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May 3, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1632529
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May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632522

Analysts who have concluded that inequality in life expectancy is increasing have generally focused on life expectancy at age 40 to 50. However, we show that among infants, children, and young adults, mortality has been falling more quickly in poorer areas with the result that inequality in mortality has ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632521
(May 3, 2016 10:20 AM, by Scott Sumner) If you rely on bloggers like Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong, you'll end up with a very crude caricature of Robert Lucas's views on macro. The following was from a 2003 Lucas paper (sent to me by Marcus Nunes), which... (1 ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632520
(Don Boudreaux)

Suppose that at the end of the 2016 Republican primary cycle Donald Trump has a plurality of the ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632518

Political campaigns are supposed to kick off debates about how we should feel about the candidates. Donald Trump’s campaign has started a debate about how we should feel about the candidate’s supporters, too.


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632519

The following is an excerpt from a May 3, 2016 Conversation between Arthur Brooks and Gail Collins of The New York Times:

Arthur Brooks: [Donald Trump’s] speech was classically populist and harked back to the days when Republicans preferred retrenchment to foreign intervention. He continued to road-test the slogan “America First,” ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632517

The Bubble Quiz has gotten a lot of attention since I started posting results from the people who took it on the NewsHour’s website. Some have recently complained that the Bubble Quiz ignores the real America, which is urban and racially diverse. The website FiveThirtyEight, bringing ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632515

Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington next month, AEI will host an event on the Indian economy titled Modinomics at two: Is it working for India and its citizens? Our panel will discuss how Modi’s economic leadership has fared against the high expectations set when he took ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632514

Sykes-Picot was a blessing for many in the Middle East.

May 16 marks the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, a secret deal which divided up the heart of the Middle East (and would have divided up Turkey as well, had it not been for the intervention of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk). ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632516

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is in Europe this week, holding discussions with European leaders in advance of the G7 summit, which Japan is hosting at the end of this month. Tightening Japan’s ties with Western states has long been a key part of Abe’s foreign policy. By visiting Italy, ...


May 3, 2016, 11:33 am, 1632512

May 3, 2016, 11:33 am, 1632511
The NY Times has published a long piece about households in Louisiana who are moving away from the area. The people in this group are called "climate refugees". This is very good sociology and a nice case study but is this "good economics"?

Over our life, ...


May 3, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632479

Today is May 3, the anniversary of Europe’s first modern constitution, adopted by Poland in 1791. Here are some interesting links I came across:

When It Comes to Paying Taxes, California is Bernie Sanders’ Kind of State: Columnist George Skelton lays it out for us: The top 1% in California (income ...


May 3, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632478

I have a new column:

How Slow Economic Growth Could Thwart a Clinton Presidency : Much has been written about the economic consequences of the slowdown in economic growth in recent years, but what about the political implications? If the slowdown continues, and there is reason to believe that it ...


May 3, 2016, 11:03 am, 1632477
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Home Prices Up 6.7 Percent ...


May 3, 2016, 10:44 am, 1632476
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May 3, 2016, 10:35 am, 1632475

Hundreds of pieces will soon be written on what business “leaders” can learn from Leicester City’s triumph. I suspect, though, that the biggest lesson will be ignored – that it vindicates William Goldman’s famous remark that “nobody knows anything.”

City’s players are, mostly, a ragbag ...


May 3, 2016, 9:33 am, 1632470

And they could be large:

In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced grants totaling $1 billion in 13 states to help communities adapt to


May 3, 2016, 9:03 am, 1632438

At CBS MoneyWatch:

When Markets Aren't Perfect, Government Can Help, by Mark Thoma: In response to a question about economic theory and its role in the financial crisis, Nobel Prize-winning economistJoseph Stiglitz said:

"The strange thing about the economics profession over the last 35 year is that there has ...


May 3, 2016, 8:44 am, 1632436
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May 3, 2016, 8:44 am, 1632437
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May 3, 2016, 8:35 am, 1632435
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 196,000 (seasonally adjusted) in April over the previous month in tomorrow’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a fractionally lower gain vs. the ...


May 3, 2016, 8:04 am, 1632431

May 3, 2016, 8:04 am, 1632430
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 543 of the just-published final volume – Bourgeois Equality – of Deirdre McCloskey’s soaring trilogy ...


May 3, 2016, 8:04 am, 1632429


May 3, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632425

In absolute numbers, there's littlesurprise:Mexicans, Indians, Koreans, Cubans, and Chinese. But can you guesswhich nationality has the highest per capita number?


May 3, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632426

"We can’t hold it against these people, evolving technology can be hard to understand."

Yes, indeed.


May 3, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632424

Seems like a calm and reasonable summary to me. Conclusion:

The ACA’s advocates and opponents are fully within their rights to highlight what they respectively regard to be the positive and negative aspects of the law. Anyone seeking to simply understand the ACA’s effects, however, will need to ...


May 3, 2016, 7:33 am, 1632423
Jacob Adenbaum, David Hubbs, Antoine Martin, and Ira Selig


May 3, 2016, 6:44 am, 1632401
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May 3, 2016, 6:35 am, 1632400
● US ISM Mfg Index stays positive, but just barely in Apr | Reuters ● PMI: US mfg output close to stagnation in Apr | Markit ● US construction spending +0.3% in Mar–highest level in over 8 years | AP ● US Consumer Spending Increases in Apr, according to survey ...


May 3, 2016, 6:35 am, 1632399
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) increased for the second straight month in April, rising to the highest level since last November. GMI—an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes—is projected to earn an annualized 3.3% over the “risk free” rate in the long ...


May 3, 2016, 6:04 am, 1632398

Key Points

The Louisiana House is currently debating the Senate Bill 432 (SB 432), which would unify New Orleans charter schools under a single authorizer, the local Orleans Parish School Board (OPSB).The Recovery School District and the OPSB have been a model of cooperation since Hurricane Katrina, and SB 432 ...


May 3, 2016, 6:04 am, 1632397

Before his big foreign policy speech, Donald Trump let us know that “it won’t be the Trump Doctrine because in life you have to be flexible. You have to have flexibility. You have to change. You may say one thing, and then the following year you want to change it ...


May 3, 2016, 5:34 am, 1632393

Scott Sumner uses economics to take down an article in The Atlantic.

I had to read this twice, before realizing that it was utter gibberish.


May 3, 2016, 5:03 am, 1632372

We have some good news! For the first time since October 2015, the number of U.S. firms that announced dividend cuts during a calendar month dropped below the level where we can be reasonably certain that at least part of the U.S. economy is experiencing ...


May 3, 2016, 5:03 am, 1632371

May 3, 2016, 4:44 am, 1632370
A


May 3, 2016, 4:05 am, 1632369

This is often forgotten:

One traditional way of measuring nations’ power relative to each other is to compare their gross domestic product. By this measure, Russia gained economically on all of its competitors as well as on the world as a whole in 1999-2015.

And this:

The GINC measures national power as ...


May 3, 2016, 2:44 am, 1632353
A


May 3, 2016, 2:04 am, 1632352

JR, a loyal MR reader, writes to me:

Your loyal readers, such as myself, know of your love for mormons. This made me curious whether you think the tithing requirement in mormonism have have the same incentive effects as a tax.

On one view, people will only bother giving if they ...


May 3, 2016, 2:04 am, 1632351

Could the Army command structure become more efficient without sacrificing combat effectiveness? Organizational bloat within the Army is expensive and inhibits decision making. Today, by some accounts, there are 28 layers of authority between an action officer and the secretary of defense.

The Army should lead the military in finding ways ...


May 3, 2016, 1:33 am, 1632349

Here’s a minimum wage thought experiment.

1. Suppose that a $15 an hour minimum wage is imposed on employers by government mandate.

2. In response to the $15 an hour minimum wage legislation, suppose that most employers then impose a 2-year minimum work experience requirement for new employees, to more closely ...


May 3, 2016, 12:04 am, 1632332
(May 3, 2016 12:32 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Clemens, Montenegro, and Pritchett continue to expand the frontiers of human knowledge about migration. Their latest working paper, "Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers," mostly measures the total wage effect of globally relocating identical workers. But it closes by... (0 ...