Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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July 31, 2015, 8:44 am, 1519302
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July 31, 2015, 8:44 am, 1519304
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July 31, 2015, 8:44 am, 1519303
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July 31, 2015, 8:34 am, 1519301
● US Q2 GDP rises 2.3%… ● The Q2 gain keeps a September interest rate hike in play… ● But some analysts are looking past September for first rate hike… ● Meanwhile, US jobless claims tick up from four-decade low… ● And Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index tumbles to lowest level ...


July 31, 2015, 8:34 am, 1519300
US economic growth rebounded in the second quarter, but the Treasury market isn’t convinced that GDP’s 2.3% advance in the April-through-June period is the catalyst that will bring a rate hike at the Fed’s monetary meeting in September. The benchmark 10-year yield ticked lower yesterday (July 30), settling at 2.28%, ...


July 31, 2015, 8:04 am, 1519297
by Joseph Joyce The Challenges of the Greek Crisis The Greek crisis has abated, but not ended. Representatives of the “troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund returned to Athens for talks with the Greek government about a new bailout. This pause allows ...


July 31, 2015, 8:04 am, 1519298


July 31, 2015, 7:33 am, 1519293

1987 interview with Sir Mick. He's a bit out of sorts but interesting.


July 31, 2015, 7:33 am, 1519292

"What do Beethoven, David Bowie, Green Day, Mozart, *NSYNC, Pete Seeger, Michael Jackson, Ray Charles, The Beatles, Bob Dylan, Duke Ellington, The Supremes, Rihanna, and many others all have in common? The Andalusian Cadence!"


July 31, 2015, 6:44 am, 1519230
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July 31, 2015, 5:33 am, 1519228

Summary: it's darn difficult.


July 31, 2015, 5:33 am, 1519227
Once again the IMF is back in the news in regards to Greece.

The IMF staff told the board of directors Greece Disqualified from New IMF Program.

Yet, Germany insists IMF be a part of the program. The reason for the latter is Germany ...


July 31, 2015, 5:33 am, 1519226




July 31, 2015, 5:23 am, 1519225
‘Why does such a large policy push need to be based on a handful of clinical trials?’


July 31, 2015, 5:03 am, 1519186

Do you remember when President Obama said that the U.S. economy, "by every metric, is better" than when he took office?

In addition to that claim having been rated as "mostly false" by the left-leaning Politifact, the Bureau of Economic Analysis rained on the ...


July 31, 2015, 5:03 am, 1519185

What can we learn from the response of the Chinese government to the problems in China's stock market?:

China’s Naked Emperors, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ... We’ve seen ... strange goings-on in China’s stock market. In and of itself, the price of Chinese equities shouldn’t matter all ...


July 31, 2015, 4:04 am, 1519184

Smarter than the average bear: Panda tricked zookeepers into giving her an air-conditioned room, round-the-clock care and extra bamboo by pretending she was pregnant

Here is the full story, with videos, consider this speculative.  For the pointer I thank the excellent Mark Thorson, a loyal MR reader.


July 31, 2015, 3:23 am, 1519181

Photo Credit: Dana || They charge more for “Arrest me red” too!

This should be a relatively quick note on personal lines insurance. I’m writing this after reading


July 31, 2015, 3:03 am, 1519132

July 31, 2015, 2:44 am, 1519131

Economists have traditionally viewed healthcare as a luxury good – consumption of it will increase more than proportionally as income rises. This column challenges this view, exploiting the windfall of lottery winnings to estimate elasticities for healthcare demand in the UK. Results suggest that income elasticities for public healthcare services ...


July 31, 2015, 2:44 am, 1519130

When banks invest heavily in sovereign debt, and in domestic sovereign debt in particular, the result is a debt home bias. This column presents evidence of a partially voluntary and partially involuntary sovereign debt home bias among large European banks. This bias is stronger if the sovereign is risky and ...


July 31, 2015, 2:04 am, 1519128

1. Novelist: Help!  I do own a copy of Sarah Nović’s Girl at War, but haven’t yet read it.

2. Basketball player: Toni Kukoc, the “Croatian sensation.”

3. Painting: There was an active school of Naive painting in Croatia, ...


July 31, 2015, 12:04 am, 1519087

The University of New Hampshire’s Bias-Free Language Guide came in for widespread criticism earlier this week for possibly chilling speech by labeling words such as “American,” “illegal alien,” “foreigners,” “mothering,” and “fathering” as problematic and non-preferred.

Commendations are due, however, to university president Mark Huddleston. The UNH reports:

The associate vice president for community, equity ...


July 31, 2015, 12:04 am, 1519086

As Medicare reaches age 50, we see periodic signs of limited efforts to move beyond its youthful exuberance as a full-fledged pay-as-you-go, fee-for-service, universal entitlement program and toward a somewhat more market-oriented direction. Most notably, the last decade since the passage of the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 has produced ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1519022
Brad Breitbach uses a surfboard to protest against the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks on Hawaiis island of Maui. WILL MAULDIN/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Some of the bitterest foes ...


July 30, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1519020




July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518958
Reuters

The Bank of Japan expects a new measure of consumer price inflation to rise above 1% over the summer, adding to evidence that the economy is escaping more ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518957

By Paul Hannon

“Further increases in employment, rising real disposable incomes and gradually strengthening consumer confidence are projected to support a pick-up in the growth of consumer spending over the ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518954
Children stay in front of their home in El Magueyito, Guerrero State, Mexico, this month. Two million more Mexicans lived in poverty in 2014 than in 2012, according to ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518956

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, July 29, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Ask WSJ Central Banks: We’re launching a new feature in response to the many questions we have received from you privately. Please email your queries about the Fed, other central banks or ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518955

Falling prices may be a sign of economic weakness, but they were a boon to eurozone consumers in the first three months of the year.

Many economists believe falling consumer prices are bad for economic growth over the long-term because they discourage spending and investment and push real debt levels ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518948
Rachael Heffner, profiled in a Wall Street Journal article about student debt last year, rented a room in her parents’ basement with her boyfriend. CATALIN ABAGIU ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518947

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, July 30, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Labor Data is at the Top of The Fed’s Rate Hike Dashboard Fed ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518949

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518951
There is already evidence that home-price growth is starting to slow. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Home prices have been rising at twice the rate of income growth and ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518953
The government on Thursday releases its first estimate of economic growth in the second quarter. It's expected that the economy returned to expansion after a first-quarter contraction. Here’s what to look for.


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518952
Coal trains approach Norfolk Southern’s Williamson rail yard in Williamson, W.Va. in May. VALERIE VOLCOVICI/REUTERS

The unemployment rate has surged in all but one of West Virginia’s metropolitan ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518946

Economic policy makers at the White House spent much of the last six years putting out fires sparked by the financial crisis and recession. Now, they are turning to seemingly mundane matters ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518950

Here is the full statement from the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518940
A debt clock on Capitol Hill in July. PAUL J. RICHARDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

For the last 18 months, investors have enjoyed a period of relative calm when ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518939
Brad Breitbach uses a surfboard to protest against the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks on Hawaiis island of Maui. WILL MAULDIN/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Some of the bitterest foes ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518945
Government data on economic output was revised for the past three years in part due to a new accounting of military spending. KELLY M. AGEE/U.S. NAVY ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518941
Businesses pulled back on investments in the second quarter, in part due to a slowdown in the oil and gas extraction sector. ANDREW BURTON/GETTY IMAGES

U.S. consumers stepped up their spending ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518942
Shoppers walk along Lexington Avenue in the eastern Midtown section of Manhattan in April. “It is the consumer that is in the driver’s seat always, and they continue to ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518944
The U.S. economy accelerated modestly in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s gross domestic product report released Thursday.


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518943
Google’s European headquarters in Dublin. Profits made by multinational companies, many of which are American, show up in GDP figures, and are likely to be exaggerated by tax-avoidance schemes, ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518938
From Tim Duy: Fed Watch: GDP Report

The second quarter GDP report, while not a blockbuster by any measure, will nudge the Fed further in the direction of a September rate hike. At first blush this might seem preposterous - 2.3% growth is nothing to write home about in ...


July 30, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1518937
It's the economy, again. After upticks in good economic feelings in recent months, surveys this week suggest Americans are growing increasingly edgy about the country’s economic future headed into the election season.


July 30, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1518934
The Economist Magazine has published a "philosophical" piece about climate change mitigation. I'd like to blog about a single paragraph in this piece related to the benefits of reducing global GHG emissions. A DIRECT Quote: "However, estimating these benefits means that we need to determine the value of a ...


July 30, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1518873

This week’s map is a GIF showing the year each state adopted its gasoline excise tax. Oregon was the first state to do so in February of 1919 (Colorado, New Mexico, and North Dakota also enacted them later in the year). By 1929, every state in the union at ...


July 30, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1518872
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July 30, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1518871

The GDP numbers issued on Thursday should be a wake-up call to Congress and to President Obama. They show an economy that is growing too slowly to generate the jobs and the earnings that Americans need. The GDP growth rate was revised down for past years. At the current rate ...


July 30, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518869

Tomorrow is Milton Friedman’s birthday — he was born on July 31 in 1912 and would have been 103 years old tomorrow. Unfortunately, Milton died on November 16, 2006 when he was 94 years old. In an editorial in the ...


July 30, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518867

Did you read about the new review paper on medical marijuana published in the prestigious Journal of the American Medical Association? In case you missed it, the paper gave a less-than-ringing endorsement of marijuana’s therapeutic benefits.

Shutterstock.com

I was surprised by the ...


July 30, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518868

Today’s 50th anniversary salutes to the enactment of the Medicare program on July 30, 1965 will emphasize how much Medicare changed the world of health insurance coverage and medical care for Americans over age 65. A closer look at the program’s origins and early history certainly confirms its primary accomplishments. ...


July 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1518865
Socialists Seek to Outvote Germany

In the wake of the near-Grexit, France and Italy seek more powers for the European Commission (EC).

And both countries want another parliament with more power. Their unstated goal is to create a United States of Europe where socialists would outvote the Germans.


July 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1518864

Tomorrow is Milton Friedman’s birthday — he was born on July 31 in 1912 and would have been 103 years old tomorrow. Unfortunately, Milton died on November 16, 2006 when he was 94 years old. In an editorial in the ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518803

Tim Duy:

GDP Report, by Tim Duy: The second quarter GDP report, while not a blockbuster by any measure, will nudge the Fed further in the direction of a September rate hike. At first blush this might seem preposterous - 2.3% growth is nothing to write home about in ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518802

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the second quarter. You can’t describe the new data as favorable, but I’m still hopeful about what comes next.


July 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518801
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released on Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shillera month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Maintain Holding Pattern in June

The May S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data ...


July 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1518800
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July 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1518799
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July 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1518798

As Jason Kilborn has graciously described, Credit Slips is the blogging base of the authors of the Law of Debtors and Creditors, 7th edition, (Aspen/Wolters Kluwer 2015). We have revised the Teacher's Manual this summer and encourage all adopters or potential ...


July 30, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1518797
Teaser:

Environmentalists ...


July 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518793

From Free Exchange at The Economist:

In the first [paper] Isaac Sorkin of the University of Michigan argues that firms may well substitute machines for people in response to minimum wages, but slowly. Mr Sorkin offers the example of sock-makers in the 1930s, which took years to ...


July 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518792
(Don Boudreaux)

As readers of this blog know, I often respond to pro-mimimim-wage arguments by advising those who ...


July 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518791

Areas where Republicans and Democrats can cooperate to advance the common good are few and far between these days, in case you haven’t noticed. So the White House deserves credit for issuing a new report that focuses on one such area: the reform of occupational-licensing laws that restrict ...


July 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518789

Key Points

Transnational organized crime (TNOC), in some cases abetted by hostile and lawless regimes in Latin America, is a principal threat to US security; however, US officials have failed to respond effectively.A narcostate has emerged in Venezuela, but US diplomats have coddled the criminal regime in defiance of ongoing US ...


July 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518790

There are two parallel stories relating to the U.S. labor market today. The first is what I call the “traditional” labor market story, which relies on the official monthly employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although unemployment has declined markedly over the past several years, these data ...


July 30, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1518786
This morning, the BEA reported Second Quarter GDP was 2.3%.

2.3% was at the low end of the Consensus Range of 1.9% to 3.5%. On the plus side, first quarter was revised way higher.

Revisions

First quarter 2015 revised up from -0.2% to ...


July 30, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1518785
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July 30, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1518784
by Felipe Rezende

S&P has issued a negative outlook regarding Brazilian sovereign debt. The S&P’s announcement stated that

Over the coming year, failure to advance with (on- and off-budget) fiscal and other policy adjustments could result in a greater-than-expected erosion of Brazil’s financial profile and further erosion of confidence and growth ...


July 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1518723
Google’s European headquarters in Dublin. Profits made by multinational companies, many of which are American, show up in GDP figures, and are likely to be exaggerated by tax-avoidance schemes, ...


July 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1518722
Shoppers walk along Lexington Avenue in the eastern Midtown section of Manhattan in April. “It is the consumer that is in the driver’s seat always, and they continue to ...


July 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1518720
A debt clock on Capitol Hill in July. PAUL J. RICHARDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

For the last 18 months, investors have enjoyed a period of relative calm when ...


July 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1518721
Businesses pulled back on investments in the second quarter, in part due to a slowdown in the oil and gas extraction sector. ANDREW BURTON/GETTY IMAGES

U.S. consumers stepped up their spending ...


July 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1518719

Paul Krugman:

Dentists and Skin in the Game: Wonkblog has a post inspired by the dentist who paid a lot of money to shoot Cecil the lion, asking why he — and dentists in general — make so much money. Interesting stuff; I’ve never really thought about ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1518717
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July 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1518718
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July 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1518716
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July 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1518715
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July 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1518714
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July 30, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1518713
Teaser:

My ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518711

July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518709
This is an excellent interview of former Fed analyst Danielle Dimartino Booth ( Dallas Fed) by Erin Ade at Boom Bust. I fully agree with her analyst analysis. Listen closely to her analysis of the housing market. She points to one area where low interest rate policy backfired.  


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518710
I have been working off and on, well mostly off because of ‘life’ and ‘laziness’, since 2010 on a project I modestly called the Social Security Defender. It is all built around a Google account and so has a Google+ page, a blog, an e-mail address and a Google Drive. ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518706

China’s seizure of seven islets and reefs in the South China Sea, and its ongoing conversion of these features into military installations, complete with evolving port facilities and a 10,000-foot runway, makes clear that this territorial seizure is of far greater significance than media coverage and administration comments would suggest. ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518708
Foreign policy scholars


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518707

On July 30, 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed Medicare and Medicaid into law. Fifty years later, Medicare and Medicaid have grown to become the largest health insurance programs in the country, with Medicaid insuring over 70 million people and Medicare insuring over 54 million. What will it take to ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518705

Remember the news on July 8th  that a “computer glitch” mysteriously grounded all United Airlines flights? This on the exact same day that another “computer glitch” mysteriously forced the New York Stock Exchange to halt trading for nearly four hours.


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518704

There are many candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. I counted 16 of them if we include only those featured regularly in national polls (and another former governor joined the fray today). That’s a pretty big number, especially if you want all of them to participate in the same debate ...


July 30, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1518699

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) will slash 6,500 jobs in 2015 as part of a cost cutting drive.

via money.cnn.com


July 30, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1518698

Pythons present a low risk to visitors to the Florida Everglades, according to officials, but you'd probably still want to steer clear of this mammoth Burmese python recently captured by University of Florida researchers.

...


July 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1518634
A debt clock on Capitol Hill in July. PAUL J. RICHARDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

For the last 18 months, investors have enjoyed a period of relative calm when ...


July 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1518635
Businesses pulled back on investments in the second quarter, in part due to a slowdown in the oil and gas extraction sector. ANDREW BURTON/GETTY IMAGES

U.S. consumers stepped up their spending ...


July 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1518633

Dean Baker:

Consumption Spending and Net Exports Spur Higher-Than-Expected Second Quarter Growth: Downward GDP revisions show economy falling further behind potential output from 2011–2014.

The Commerce Department reported the economy grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a substantial improvement from the 0.6 percent rate in the ...


July 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1518632
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July 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1518631
The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

In ...


July 30, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1518627
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July 30, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1518630
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July 30, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1518629
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July 30, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1518628
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July 30, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1518626
The US economy revived in this year’s second quarter, according to today’s preliminary GDP estimate from the government. The 2.3% increase in output in Q2 vs. the previous quarter (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) is a modest pace, although the advance offers an encouraging improvement over Q1’s tepid 0.6% rise. ...


July 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1518620
(July 30, 2015 09:50 AM, by Scott Sumner) The government just announced revised real GDP figures for the past few years, showing even lower growth than previously estimated. I am traveling now so I'm going to estimate these growth rates w/o a calculator. Please correct me if I... (4 COMMENTS)


July 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1518619


July 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1518618
Economic policy scholars


July 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1518617

Two schools have vied at center stage in recent years seeking to explain the foreign policy behavior of Putin’s Russia. One essentially places the blame almost entirely at the West’s door: The annexation of Crimea and the war on Ukraine were responses to the West’s insufficient sensitivity to Russian “national ...


July 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1518616

From 1996 to 2004, Canada raised taxes for the Canada Pension Plan, its own version of Social Security. How did Canadians react? By saving less on their own, by about 90 cents for each dollar of new taxes. That’s the conclusion of a new study from the Fraser Institute, ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518555

“No Car Tax.” As political slogans go, Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore’s 1997 cri de coeur was admirably clear. No vague, aspirational statements about renewing, reclaiming, or reviving anything; just: the car tax must go.

Gilmore’s anti-car tax campaign was a political masterstroke, and in his first year in office, he ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518553

Economic policy makers at the White House spent much of the last six years putting out fires sparked by the financial crisis and recession. Now, they are turning to seemingly mundane matters ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518554

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, July 30, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Labor Data is at the Top of The Fed’s Rate Hike Dashboard Fed ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518552
Government data on economic output was revised for the past three years in part due to a new accounting of military spending. KELLY M. AGEE/U.S. NAVY ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518549
Shoppers walk along Lexington Avenue in the eastern Midtown section of Manhattan in April. “It is the consumer that is in the driver’s seat always, and they continue to ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518550
Google’s European headquarters in Dublin. Profits made by multinational companies, many of which are American, show up in GDP figures, and are likely to be exaggerated by tax-avoidance schemes, ...


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518551
The U.S. economy accelerated modestly in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s gross domestic product report released Thursday.


July 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1518548
The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 267,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 255,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 278,500. ...


July 30, 2015, 10:44 am, 1518547
Two weeks into President Barack Obama's campaign to win backing for the Iran nuclear deal in Congress, it's increasingly clear his strategy is focused on gaining just enough Democratic support to sustain a presidential veto should lawmakers reject the agreement.


July 30, 2015, 10:44 am, 1518546
It's the economy, again. After upticks in good economic feelings in recent months, surveys this week suggest Americans are growing increasingly edgy about the country’s economic future headed into the election season.


July 30, 2015, 10:44 am, 1518545
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July 30, 2015, 10:44 am, 1518544

Here's an opportunity to supervise a consumer financial protection clinic that has done some great work - information on the position and how to apply here


July 30, 2015, 10:34 am, 1518543

Jeremy Corbyn's economic policy deserves more attention than it's getting.

It seems to me that this comprises two necessarily related elements. One is higher corporate taxes: he wants to "strip out some of the huge tax reliefs and subsidies on offer to the corporate ...


July 30, 2015, 10:34 am, 1518542

After another dismal first quarter in which the economic growth actually turned slightly negative, the first release of the second quarter’s Gross Domestic Product numbers seems to indicate that things got better after the weather warmed ...


July 30, 2015, 10:04 am, 1518536

Ted Diamantis, an importer of Greek wines who is based in Chicago, has been helping his suppliers stock up on bottles, labels and printing ink. The barrels, though, have him worried.

In two or three weeks, some of ...


July 30, 2015, 10:04 am, 1518535
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 1 of Thomas Sowell’s 2009 volume Intellectuals and Society:

Intellect is not wisdom.


July 30, 2015, 10:04 am, 1518533

In his recent book, “The Conservative Heart,” AEI President Arthur C. Brooks encourages conservative leaders to leave behind old techniques of expressing ideas — to break their “bad habits.” For example, Brooks writes:

When you are about to argue that the main benefit of free enterprise is that it creates economic growth, ...


July 30, 2015, 10:04 am, 1518534

In the battles over schooling and American history, it sometimes seems that the forces of agenda-driven identity politics keep racking up wins. That’s what makes this morning’s release of the newly revised Advancement Placement U.S. History framework a happy turn. The College Board’s new framework is not just better than ...


July 30, 2015, 10:04 am, 1518532

Last fall, the College Board released its revised 2014 AP US History framework — and faced major political backlash. AEI’s Rick Hess opined, “I can’t help but feel like the framework portrays a one-sided and negative view of American history.” Conservatives were particularly incensed by the dismissive treatment of ...


July 30, 2015, 10:04 am, 1518531

The corrosive effects of “political correctness” in modern American society are unlikely to divide “traditionalists” from “accommodationists” among the ranks, but they are all but certain to widen the gap between soldiers and statesmen. And given the parlous state of Obama-era civil-military relations, that is indeed something to worry about.

There ...


July 30, 2015, 9:33 am, 1518529

Today in natural resource damage assessment:

A shipping company will pay Hawaii more than $15 million to settle a spill that put 233,000 gallons of molasses into Honolulu Harbor in 2013.

The $15.4 million settlement -- a combination of cash, restoration and funding of environmental programs -- from Matson Navigation ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1518467

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, July 30, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Labor Data is at the Top of The Fed’s Rate Hike Dashboard Fed ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1518466

Economic policy makers at the White House spent much of the last six years putting out fires sparked by the financial crisis and recession. Now, they are turning to seemingly mundane matters ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1518465
Government data on economic output was revised for the past three years in part due to a new accounting of military spending. KELLY M. AGEE/U.S. NAVY ...


July 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1518464
The U.S. economy accelerated modestly in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s gross domestic product report released Thursday.


July 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1518463
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate); Includes Historical Revisions

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second ...


July 30, 2015, 8:44 am, 1518462
Two weeks into President Barack Obama's campaign to win backing for the Iran nuclear deal in Congress, it's increasingly clear his strategy is focused on gaining just enough Democratic support to sustain a presidential veto should lawmakers reject the agreement.


July 30, 2015, 8:44 am, 1518461
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July 30, 2015, 8:44 am, 1518459
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July 30, 2015, 8:44 am, 1518460
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July 30, 2015, 8:34 am, 1518458

China adds to its status as the honey badger of intellectual property law.

AFP (“Michael Jordan loses China trademark suit“):

A Beijing court has dismissed a trademark case brought by US basketball superstar ...


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518455
Asset Pricing Part II, the second half of my online PhD class in asset pricing, starts up next week. Part I and Part II are separate and independent courses, and you don't need a lot of the material of Part I to do Part II.

Syllabus:

Week ...


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518454

Probably of no interest to most people, but if, like me, you're taking niacin to raise your HDL, this is quite interesting.


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518453

In seven categories, no less: adventurers, athletes, criminals, military & spies, public servants, radicals, and resisters.


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518452

Supposedly an old joke, but I hadn't heard it and I like it.


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518390

"Use our interactive map to see what's fresh in your area . . ."


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518389
On July 1, the Spanish Government went to "Full Police State", with enactment of law forbidding dissent and unauthorized photos of law enforcement.

Spain's officially a police state now. On July 1st, its much-protested "gag" law went into effect, instantly making criminals of those protesting the new ...


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518388



A distinguished school of libertarian and neo-Austrian economic thought argues, following F.A. Hayek, that institutional improvements only arise from spontaneous order, and never from conscious design. There is something to their argument, but the designs of Alvin Roth provide counter-examples.


(p. A13) Mr. Roth's ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1518357

When did the earliest advertisement for Campbell's brand new line of condensed soups appear in a local U.S. newspaper?

Previously, we identified what we believe to be is the first newspaper advertisement ever for Campbell's Condensed Soup, but there's some uncertaintly with that ad ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1518356

July 30, 2015, 4:04 am, 1518355
Vox.com had a long, interesting interview with Senator Bernie Sanders covering a large number of political and economic issues. In this post, I want to focus on just one issue he raised: Whether rising incomes for Chinese workers have to come at the expense of U.S. workers. Here is what ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1518330

There is increasing evidence that cities offer externalities that raise labour productivity. This column looks at the contribution of US cities to productivity growth at the turn of last century. The findings show that increased specialisation, promoted by improved transportation, was the key to productivity growth. Today’s policymakers should heed ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1518329

HIV/AIDS is an endemic economic problem for significant parts of Africa. This column presents evidence suggesting that the demographic shock induced by the slave trade still shapes the contemporary family structures and sexual behaviour of many African countries. Policymakers and human rights organisations should understand that the struggle against HIV/AIDS ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1518328

If a nation sends all its children to school, can it count on greater economic growth? Does putting bottoms in seats generate human capital? This week, Russ welcomed back the Hoover Institution's Eric Hanushek.

What did you think of this week's episode? What did it make you think more about? ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 am, 1518327

That is the title of a working study from Credit Suisse (pdf), here is one excerpt:

The problem is that short-termism is very difficult to prove. As we will see, many of the common perceived symptoms of short-termism don’t hold up to scrutiny, and there are some legitimate reasons ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 am, 1518326

What to do?  What to see and where to eat?  The stay there will be brief, but thanks in advance for your assistance…


July 30, 2015, 2:04 am, 1518325

College enrollment has increased, but graduation rates remain discouragingly mediocre, especially among low-income students. Consequently, researchers and policymakers have focused on how students choose colleges that maximize their potential success, especially regarding “undermatching” — when high-achieving, low-income students enroll in colleges that are less selective than they are qualified to ...