Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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June 25, 2017, 9:03 am, 1758173

Nearly eight months since President Donald Trump’s election, a major gap has opened up between how men and women view the president’s handling of the economy.

In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC news poll, 74% of men think the economy has improved since the election, compared with 25% who ...

June 25, 2017, 8:04 am, 1758172

I never imagined that Canadian finance ministers would one day worry about a shortage of marijuana. Welcome to 2017.

Bloomberg: The biggest challenge for Justin Trudeau’s forthcoming legal recreational marijuana market is a shortage of pot, the finance minister of Canada’s most-populous province says.

…Finance ministers were told demand is ...

June 25, 2017, 8:04 am, 1758171

June 25, 2017, 7:34 am, 1758170

In pretty 360 degree video.

Related ...

June 25, 2017, 5:34 am, 1758159

I wouldn't have guessed.

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June 25, 2017, 5:03 am, 1758153

June 25, 2017, 4:04 am, 1758151

A new ranking shows that for the second year running, the world’s fastest supercomputer is TaihuLight, housed at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. Capable of performing 93 quadrillion calculations per second, it’s almost three times faster than the second-place Tianhe-2. And in third spot this year is ...

June 25, 2017, 4:04 am, 1758150
My regular column is available to subscribers on This is an excerpt. One year on from the vote, and a couple of weeks on from an election that threw an almighty spanner into the works, the formal negotiations...

June 25, 2017, 2:04 am, 1758142

1. Sarah Binder and Mark Spindel, The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve.  I’ve only been reading the title of this one, as it came in the door just before I left for China.  But I like it already, and even if ...

June 25, 2017, 2:04 am, 1758141
Unionists are not theorists; unionism is an eminently practical thing. — Robert F. Hoxie Theory and trade unionism are almost contradictory terms. — Edward M. Arnos In accordance with this theory it is held that there is a certain fixed amount of work to be done… David F. Schloss ...

June 24, 2017, 10:45 pm, 1758128
Beliefs about origins, life after death, and rituals that activate supernatural processes to help navigate people life, despite being almost certainly incorrect, are common in developing countries. This column examines the role of ‘magical’ beliefs in warfare in the context of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Belief in a ...

June 24, 2017, 10:45 pm, 1758129
Political economy discourses in areas such as the nature of market failure, the case for government intervention on grounds of efficiency and equity, and the interplay between economic and political forces have run for generations. This column provides an overview of the life of Nobel Prize-winning economist W Arthur Lewis, ...

June 24, 2017, 9:33 pm, 1758127

June 24, 2017, 8:34 pm, 1758122
By: Daniel Lacalle

Mario Draghi has again missed an exceptional opportunity to adjust monetary policy. Byignoring the huge risks that are being created fromthe brutal inflation of financial assets, saying that “there are no signs of a bubble,” the European Central Bank ...

June 24, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1758121

To see the problem, consider Brian’s situation. He’s a single adult, age 45, earning $35,000 a year. BCRA (section 102(b)(2)) expects Brian to contribute a little more than 8.3% of that income to purchase a health insurance policy. That’s about $2,911. The federal government would chip in the amount ...

June 24, 2017, 7:33 pm, 1758120

June 24, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1758118

Toothpick crossbow that can shoot iron nails more than 20 metres (65 feet) the latest must-have toy in China

Here is the story, via Mark Thorson.

The post Let’s thwart China markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

June 24, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1758117

June 24, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1758110

June 24, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1758109

June 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1758102
(June 24, 2017 01:59 PM, by David Henderson) There's a lot of buzz on the Internet lately (see here for my recent commentary on Sam Tanenhaus's review) about the recent book by Nancy MacLean, Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right's Stealth Plan for America.... (0 COMMENTS)

June 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1758101

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on June 22nd in Project Syndicate.

As the US, Mexico and ...

June 24, 2017, 11:34 am, 1758099
Todd Henderson wrote me a thoughtful response to my post on non-voting shares.Todd:

Response to Cochrane

We are grateful for Cochrane’s thoughtful response to our op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Space limitations prevent us from giving the necessary treatment to our ideas, but he is ...

June 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1758083
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to ...

June 24, 2017, 9:03 am, 1758071

June 24, 2017, 9:03 am, 1758070
The key economic reports this week are Personal Income and Outlays for May, Case-Shiller house prices,and the third estimate of Q1 GDP.

----- Monday, June 26th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders forMay from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in durable goods orders.

June 24, 2017, 8:04 am, 1758069
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 179 of the 2016 Third Edition of James D. Gwartney’s, Richard L. Stroup’s, ...

June 24, 2017, 7:34 am, 1758068

Belichick just seems to be, as Yogi would have said, smarter than the average bear.

June 24, 2017, 5:34 am, 1758057

June 24, 2017, 5:33 am, 1758056

(p. B5) Studies show that when employees have the choice to work remotely, "business is a whole lot better" for "people, the planet and profit," said Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics, a consulting firm that focuses on emerging workplace trends.

Gallup's State of the American Workplace report, ...

June 24, 2017, 4:04 am, 1758054

In the past few months, China has announced two new crackdowns on research misconduct — one of which could lead to executions for scientists who doctor their data.

Scientists have been sounding alarms for years about the integrity of research in China. One recent survey estimated that

June 24, 2017, 2:04 am, 1758048

That is a new paper by Jonathan Berk and Jules H. van Binsbergen, here is the abstract:

We study a market for a skill that is in short supply and high demand, where the presence of charlatans (professionals who sell a service that they do not ...

June 24, 2017, 12:34 am, 1758045
By: Daniel Lacalle

Mario Draghi has again missed an exceptional opportunity to adjust monetary policy. Byignoring the huge risks that are being created fromthe brutal inflation of financial assets, saying that “there are no signs of a bubble,” the European Central Bank ...

June 24, 2017, 12:34 am, 1758044
By: Mises Institute

While the Federal Reserve is desperate to depict an optimistic vision for the global economy, their fellow central bankers aren't buying it. Earlier this week Mark Carney of the ...